Settled SharpCast Picks, locked before kickoff and graded on this site, wins and losses alike. Nothing is quietly removed.
The single highest conviction pick on each fixture, the bet we would place if we could place only one. The per product breakdown below keeps Builder, ACCA, Score and Cards on their own separate records, so a combination product never flatters this single pick strike rate.
When the model says 60 percent, it should win about 60 percent of the time. Dots near the dashed line mean the probabilities are honest. Live across every settled prediction.
Every product is graded on its own settled record. A multi or accumulator hits far less often than a single by design, so its strike rate is kept entirely separate and never folded into the SharpCast Pick number above. Figures are in units; 1 unit = £10.
Single outcome per fixture, the highest conviction pick.
World Cup and international Main Outcomes, graded from pre kickoff snapshots at the fair price we locked. No bookmaker price exists on this pipeline.
Backtested and simulated. These are NOT pre kickoff locked SharpCast Picks and are not part of the on site track record. Past simulated performance is not a promise of future results. 18+ only. These figures are not the on site track record above and are not pre kickoff locked picks. They replay each product selector over historical fixtures and settle it against the real result.
Single outcome per fixture from the v1.2.3 ensemble selector, settled at the recorded 1X2 book price.
| Date | Fixture | Selection | Chance | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-19 | Metz v Paris SG | away win | 66% | hit | +0.62 |
| 2024-05-15 | Sevilla v Cadiz | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-12 | Bochum v Leverkusen | away win | 61% | hit | +0.70 |
| 2024-05-10 | Frosinone v Inter | away win | 59% | hit | +0.73 |
| 2024-05-06 | Lille v Lyon | home win | 56% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-04 | Sassuolo v Inter | away win | 69% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Darmstadt v Freiburg | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-14 | Ath Bilbao v Villarreal | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Sassuolo v Milan | away win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | M'gladbach v Dortmund | away win | 55% | hit | +1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | Cadiz v Barcelona | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-01 | Lecce v Roma | away win | 58% | miss | -1.00 |
| Date | Comp | Fixture | Market | Pick | Prob | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  England3·0Costa Rica | Match result | England to win | 91% | won | +0.10ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  Portugal2·1Nigeria | Match resultMain | Portugal to win | 79% | won | +0.27ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  Pakistan2·0Afghanistan | Match result | Pakistan to win | 47% | won | +1.12ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  Argentina3·0Iceland | Match resultMain | Argentina to win | 92% | won | +0.08ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  Iraq0·2Venezuela | Match result | Iraq to win | 65% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 9 Jun | Friendlies |  Saudi Arabia0·0Senegal | Match result | Senegal to win | 47% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 30 May | Champions League |  Paris Saint Germain1·1Arsenal | Match result | Arsenal to win | 36% | lost | -1.00u |
| 30 May | Champions League | Paris Saint Germain1·1Arsenal | Match result | PSG to win | 38% | lost | -1.00u |
| 30 May | Champions League | Paris Saint Germain1·1Arsenal | Match result | Arsenal to win | 36% | lost | -1.00u |
| 30 May | Champions League | Paris Saint Germain1·1Arsenal | Match result | PSG to win | 37% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | La Liga |  Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Match result | Villarreal to win | 41% | won | +1.65u |
| 24 May | La Liga | Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Match result | Villarreal to win | 39% | won | +1.60u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Match result | Cagliari to win | 13% | won | +11.75u |
| 24 May | Serie A | AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Match result | Milan to win | 65% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Match result | Cagliari to win | 13% | won | +11.75u |
| 24 May | Serie A | AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Match result | Milan to win | 66% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  Torino2·2Juventus | Match result | Juventus to win | 63% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Torino2·2Juventus | Match result | Juventus to win | 61% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  Hellas Verona0·2AS Roma | Match result | Roma to win | 68% | won | +0.38u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Hellas Verona0·2AS Roma | Match result | Roma to win | 64% | won | +0.42u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  Cremonese1·4Como | Match result | Como to win | 62% | won | +0.63u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Cremonese1·4Como | Match result | Como to win | 61% | won | +0.60u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  Lecce1·0Genoa | Match result | Lecce to win | 40% | won | +1.04u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Lecce1·0Genoa | Match result | Lecce to win | 40% | won | +0.93u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  Napoli1·0Udinese | Match result | Napoli to win | 57% | won | +0.52u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Napoli1·0Udinese | Match result | Napoli to win | 55% | won | +0.52u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Fulham2·0Newcastle | Match result | Newcastle to win | 37% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Fulham2·0Newcastle | Match result | Newcastle to win | 38% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Liverpool1·1Brentford | Match result | Liverpool to win | 53% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Liverpool1·1Brentford | Match result | Liverpool to win | 52% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Burnley1·1Wolves | Match result | Burnley to win | 39% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Burnley1·1Wolves | Match result | Burnley to win | 39% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Tottenham1·0Everton | Match result | Tottenham to win | 44% | won | +0.94u |
| 24 May | EPL | Tottenham1·0Everton | Match result | Tottenham to win | 43% | won | +0.94u |
| 24 May | EPL |  West Ham3·0Leeds | Match result | Leeds to win | 26% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | West Ham3·0Leeds | Match result | West Ham to win | 49% | won | +0.80u |
| 24 May | EPL | West Ham3·0Leeds | Match result | West Ham to win | 48% | won | +0.80u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Manchester City1·2Aston Villa | Match result | Draw | 19% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Manchester City1·2Aston Villa | Match result | Man City to win | 65% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Manchester City1·2Aston Villa | Match resultMain | Man City to win | 67% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Brighton0·3Manchester United | Match result | Brighton to win | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Brighton0·3Manchester United | Match result | Brighton to win | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Crystal Palace1·2Arsenal | Match result | Arsenal to win | 51% | won | +1.05u |
| 24 May | EPL | Crystal Palace1·2Arsenal | Match result | Arsenal to win | 50% | won | +1.02u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Nottingham Forest1·1Bournemouth | Match result | Bournemouth to win | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Nottingham Forest1·1Bournemouth | Match result | Bournemouth to win | 48% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Sunderland2·1Chelsea | Match result | Chelsea to win | 45% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Sunderland2·1Chelsea | Match result | Chelsea to win | 49% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  Parma1·0Sassuolo | Match result | Sassuolo to win | 39% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Parma1·0Sassuolo | Match result | Sassuolo to win | 41% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | League One |  Bolton4·1Stockport County | Match result | Bolton to win | 40% | won | +1.63u |
| 24 May | League One | Bolton4·1Stockport County | Match result | Bolton to win | 39% | won | +1.63u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Valencia3·1Barcelona | Match result | Barcelona to win | 52% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Valencia3·1Barcelona | Match result | Barcelona to win | 52% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Celta Vigo1·0Sevilla | Match result | Celta to win | 49% | won | +1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Celta Vigo1·0Sevilla | Match result | Celta to win | 49% | won | +1.02u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Espanyol1·1Real Sociedad | Match result | Real Sociedad to win | 33% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Espanyol1·1Real Sociedad | Match result | Espanyol to win | 41% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Espanyol1·1Real Sociedad | Match result | Real Sociedad to win | 35% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Espanyol1·1Real Sociedad | Match result | Espanyol to win | 40% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Real Madrid4·2Athletic Club | Match result | Real Madrid to win | 61% | won | +0.55u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Real Madrid4·2Athletic Club | Match result | Real Madrid to win | 60% | won | +0.53u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Alaves1·2Rayo Vallecano | Match result | Alaves to win | 36% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Alaves1·2Rayo Vallecano | Match result | Alaves to win | 38% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Real Betis2·1Levante | Match result | Real Betis to win | 43% | won | +1.45u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Real Betis2·1Levante | Match result | Real Betis to win | 45% | won | +1.38u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Getafe1·0Osasuna | Match result | Getafe to win | 36% | won | +1.80u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Getafe1·0Osasuna | Match result | Getafe to win | 36% | won | +1.83u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Girona1·1Elche | Match result | Elche to win | 28% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Girona1·1Elche | Match result | Girona to win | 47% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Girona1·1Elche | Match result | Elche to win | 28% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Girona1·1Elche | Match result | Girona to win | 48% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Mallorca3·0Oviedo | Match resultMain | Mallorca to win | 57% | won | +0.52u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Mallorca3·0Oviedo | Match result | Mallorca to win | 55% | won | +0.52u |
| 23 May | Serie A |  Lazio2·1Pisa | Match result | Lazio to win | 52% | won | +0.75u |
| 23 May | Serie A | Lazio2·1Pisa | Match result | Lazio to win | 53% | won | +0.78u |
| 23 May | Serie A |  Bologna3·3Inter | Match result | Inter to win | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | Serie A | Bologna3·3Inter | Match result | Inter to win | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | Championship |  Hull City1·0Middlesbrough | Match result | Hull to win | 28% | won | +3.30u |
| 23 May | Championship | Hull City1·0Middlesbrough | Match result | Middlesbrough to win | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | Championship | Hull City1·0Middlesbrough | Match result | Middlesbrough to win | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | Championship | Hull City1·0Middlesbrough | Match result | Hull to win | 28% | won | +3.30u |
| 22 May | Serie A |  Fiorentina1·1Atalanta | Match result | Atalanta to win | 41% | lost | -1.00u |
| 22 May | Serie A | Fiorentina1·1Atalanta | Match result | Atalanta to win | 39% | lost | -1.00u |
| 20 May | Europa League |  SC Freiburg0·3Aston Villa | Match result | Aston Villa to win | 51% | won | +0.68u |
| 20 May | Europa League | SC Freiburg0·3Aston Villa | Match result | Aston Villa to win | 48% | won | +0.68u |
| 19 May | EPL | Chelsea2·1Tottenham | Match result | Chelsea to win | 43% | won | +1.18u |
| 19 May | EPL | Chelsea2·1Tottenham | Match result | Chelsea to win | 45% | won | +1.15u |
| 19 May | EPL | Bournemouth1·1Manchester City | Match result | Bournemouth to win | 24% | lost | -1.00u |
| 19 May | EPL | Bournemouth1·1Manchester City | Match result | Man City to win | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 19 May | EPL | Bournemouth1·1Manchester City | Match result | Bournemouth to win | 25% | lost | -1.00u |
| 19 May | EPL | Bournemouth1·1Manchester City | Match result | Man City to win | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 18 May | EPL | Arsenal1·0Burnley | Match result | Burnley to win | 7% | lost | -1.00u |
| 18 May | EPL | Arsenal1·0Burnley | Match result | Arsenal to win | 79% | won | +0.13u |
| 18 May | EPL | Arsenal1·0Burnley | Match result | Draw | 14% | lost | -1.00u |
| 18 May | EPL | Arsenal1·0Burnley | Match result | Arsenal to win | 79% | won | +0.12u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Barcelona3·1Real Betis | Match result | Barcelona to win | 63% | won | +0.37u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Barcelona3·1Real Betis | Match result | Barcelona to win | 63% | won | +0.37u |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 |  Lille0·2Auxerre | Match result | Auxerre to win | 17% | won | +7.50u |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 | Lille0·2Auxerre | Match result | Lille to win | 60% | lost | -1.00u |
P&L is at level stake, 1 unit = £10, from the price we published when the pick was locked. Rows marked fair settle at the fair price we locked before kickoff: no bookmaker price exists on the international pipeline. Latest 100 settled picks shown for the active filters, last 90 days.
Same game multi, correlation priced from the scoreline matrix.
Cross fixture accumulator, higher return and higher variance.
Correct score from the scoreline matrix, long odds.
Player and match card bets, pending the cards model.
SharpCast publishes probabilities, not certainties. Outcomes are expressed as a likelihood with a stated confidence based on the model and the de overrounded market consensus. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.
