Settled SharpCast Picks, locked before kickoff and graded on this site, wins and losses alike. Nothing is quietly removed.
The single highest conviction pick on each fixture, the bet we would place if we could place only one. The per product breakdown below keeps Builder, ACCA, Score and Cards on their own separate records, so a combination product never flatters this single pick strike rate.
When the model says 60 percent, it should win about 60 percent of the time. Dots near the dashed line mean the probabilities are honest. Live across every settled prediction.
Every product is graded on its own settled record. A multi or accumulator hits far less often than a single by design, so its strike rate is kept entirely separate and never folded into the SharpCast Pick number above. Figures are in units; 1 unit = £10.
Single outcome per fixture, the highest conviction pick.
World Cup and international Main Outcomes, graded from pre kickoff snapshots at the fair price we locked. No bookmaker price exists on this pipeline.
Backtested and simulated. These are NOT pre kickoff locked SharpCast Picks and are not part of the on site track record. Past simulated performance is not a promise of future results. 18+ only. These figures are not the on site track record above and are not pre kickoff locked picks. They replay each product selector over historical fixtures and settle it against the real result.
Single outcome per fixture from the v1.2.3 ensemble selector, settled at the recorded 1X2 book price.
| Date | Fixture | Selection | Chance | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-19 | Metz v Paris SG | away win | 66% | hit | +0.62 |
| 2024-05-15 | Sevilla v Cadiz | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-12 | Bochum v Leverkusen | away win | 61% | hit | +0.70 |
| 2024-05-10 | Frosinone v Inter | away win | 59% | hit | +0.73 |
| 2024-05-06 | Lille v Lyon | home win | 56% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-04 | Sassuolo v Inter | away win | 69% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Darmstadt v Freiburg | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-14 | Ath Bilbao v Villarreal | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Sassuolo v Milan | away win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | M'gladbach v Dortmund | away win | 55% | hit | +1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | Cadiz v Barcelona | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-01 | Lecce v Roma | away win | 58% | miss | -1.00 |
Small sample: under 10 settled picks in this slice, so these numbers carry little signal yet.
| Date | Comp | Fixture | Market | Pick | Prob | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  Portugal2·1Nigeria | Match result | Portugal to win | 79% | won | +0.27ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  Argentina3·0Iceland | Match result | Argentina to win | 92% | won | +0.08ufair |
| 24 May | EPL |  Manchester City1·2Aston Villa | Match result | Man City to win | 67% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Mallorca3·0Oviedo | Match result | Mallorca to win | 57% | won | +0.52u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Werder Bremen0·2Borussia Dortmund | Match result | Dortmund to win | 49% | won | +1.22u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Eintracht Frankfurt2·2VfB Stuttgart | Match result | Stuttgart to win | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 13 May | Ligue 1 |  Stade Brestois 291·2Strasbourg | Match result | Strasbourg to win | 42% | won | +1.71u |
| 9 May | Serie A |  Lazio0·3Inter | Match result | Inter to win | 53% | won | +1.04u |
| 3 May | La Liga |  Real Betis3·0Oviedo | Match result | Real Betis to win | 56% | won | +0.62u |
P&L is at level stake, 1 unit = £10, from the price we published when the pick was locked. Rows marked fair settle at the fair price we locked before kickoff: no bookmaker price exists on the international pipeline. Latest 100 settled picks shown for the active filters, last 90 days.
Same game multi, correlation priced from the scoreline matrix.
Cross fixture accumulator, higher return and higher variance.
Correct score from the scoreline matrix, long odds.
Player and match card bets, pending the cards model.
SharpCast publishes probabilities, not certainties. Outcomes are expressed as a likelihood with a stated confidence based on the model and the de overrounded market consensus. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.
