Settled SharpCast Picks, locked before kickoff and graded on this site, wins and losses alike. Nothing is quietly removed.
The single highest conviction pick on each fixture, the bet we would place if we could place only one. The per product breakdown below keeps Builder, ACCA, Score and Cards on their own separate records, so a combination product never flatters this single pick strike rate.
When the model says 60 percent, it should win about 60 percent of the time. Dots near the dashed line mean the probabilities are honest. Live across every settled prediction.
Every product is graded on its own settled record. A multi or accumulator hits far less often than a single by design, so its strike rate is kept entirely separate and never folded into the SharpCast Pick number above. Figures are in units; 1 unit = £10.
Single outcome per fixture, the highest conviction pick.
World Cup and international Main Outcomes, graded from pre kickoff snapshots at the fair price we locked. No bookmaker price exists on this pipeline.
Backtested and simulated. These are NOT pre kickoff locked SharpCast Picks and are not part of the on site track record. Past simulated performance is not a promise of future results. 18+ only. These figures are not the on site track record above and are not pre kickoff locked picks. They replay each product selector over historical fixtures and settle it against the real result.
Single outcome per fixture from the v1.2.3 ensemble selector, settled at the recorded 1X2 book price.
| Date | Fixture | Selection | Chance | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-19 | Metz v Paris SG | away win | 66% | hit | +0.62 |
| 2024-05-15 | Sevilla v Cadiz | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-12 | Bochum v Leverkusen | away win | 61% | hit | +0.70 |
| 2024-05-10 | Frosinone v Inter | away win | 59% | hit | +0.73 |
| 2024-05-06 | Lille v Lyon | home win | 56% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-04 | Sassuolo v Inter | away win | 69% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Darmstadt v Freiburg | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-14 | Ath Bilbao v Villarreal | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Sassuolo v Milan | away win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | M'gladbach v Dortmund | away win | 55% | hit | +1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | Cadiz v Barcelona | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-01 | Lecce v Roma | away win | 58% | miss | -1.00 |
| Date | Comp | Fixture | Market | Pick | Prob | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  England3·0Costa Rica | Match result | England to win | 91% | won | +0.10ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | England3·0Costa Rica | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 55% | won | +0.81ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | England3·0Costa Rica | Both teams to scoreMain | BTTS no | 91% | won | +0.10ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | England3·0Costa Rica | Double chance | Either team to win | 91% | won | +0.09ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | England3·0Costa Rica | Draw no bet | England draw no bet | 99% | won | +0.01ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | England3·0Costa Rica | Asian handicap | England -1 | 73% | won | +0.37ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | England3·0Costa Rica | Result + BTTS | England to win and BTTS no | 84% | won | +0.20ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  Portugal2·1Nigeria | Match resultMain | Portugal to win | 79% | won | +0.27ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Portugal2·1Nigeria | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 75% | won | +0.33ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Portugal2·1Nigeria | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 69% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Portugal2·1Nigeria | Double chance | Either team to win | 85% | won | +0.18ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Portugal2·1Nigeria | Draw no bet | Portugal draw no bet | 93% | won | +0.07ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Portugal2·1Nigeria | Result + BTTS | Portugal to win and BTTS no | 58% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  Pakistan2·0Afghanistan | Match result | Pakistan to win | 47% | won | +1.12ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Pakistan2·0Afghanistan | Total goalsMain | Under 2.5 | 70% | won | +0.42ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Pakistan2·0Afghanistan | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 67% | won | +0.50ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Pakistan2·0Afghanistan | Double chance | Pakistan or draw | 78% | won | +0.29ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Pakistan2·0Afghanistan | Draw no bet | Pakistan draw no bet | 68% | won | +0.47ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Pakistan2·0Afghanistan | Result + BTTS | Pakistan to win and BTTS no | 34% | won | +1.91ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  Argentina3·0Iceland | Match resultMain | Argentina to win | 92% | won | +0.08ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Argentina3·0Iceland | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 61% | won | +0.65ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Argentina3·0Iceland | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 91% | won | +0.10ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Argentina3·0Iceland | Double chance | Argentina or draw | 99% | won | +0.01ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Argentina3·0Iceland | Draw no bet | Argentina draw no bet | 99% | won | +0.01ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Argentina3·0Iceland | Asian handicap | Argentina -1 | 77% | won | +0.30ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Argentina3·0Iceland | Result + BTTS | Argentina to win and BTTS no | 85% | won | +0.18ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  Iraq0·2Venezuela | Match result | Iraq to win | 65% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Iraq0·2Venezuela | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 62% | won | +0.61ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Iraq0·2Venezuela | Both teams to scoreMain | BTTS no | 69% | won | +0.44ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Iraq0·2Venezuela | Double chance | Iraq or draw | 89% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Iraq0·2Venezuela | Draw no bet | Iraq draw no bet | 85% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Iraq0·2Venezuela | Asian handicap | Iraq +1 | 89% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies | Iraq0·2Venezuela | Result + BTTS | Iraq to win and BTTS no | 49% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 9 Jun | Friendlies |  Saudi Arabia0·0Senegal | Match result | Senegal to win | 47% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 9 Jun | Friendlies | Saudi Arabia0·0Senegal | Total goalsMain | Under 2.5 | 59% | won | +0.69ufair |
| 9 Jun | Friendlies | Saudi Arabia0·0Senegal | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 57% | won | +0.76ufair |
| 9 Jun | Friendlies | Saudi Arabia0·0Senegal | Double chance | Senegal or draw | 74% | won | +0.35ufair |
| 9 Jun | Friendlies | Saudi Arabia0·0Senegal | Asian handicap | Senegal +2 | 90% | won | +0.11ufair |
| 9 Jun | Friendlies | Saudi Arabia0·0Senegal | Result + BTTS | Senegal to win and BTTS no | 30% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 30 May | Champions League |  Paris Saint Germain1·1Arsenal | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 72% | won | +0.39u |
| 30 May | Champions League | Paris Saint Germain1·1Arsenal | Match result | Arsenal to win | 36% | lost | -1.00u |
| 30 May | Champions League | Paris Saint Germain1·1Arsenal | Match result | PSG to win | 38% | lost | -1.00u |
| 30 May | Champions League | Paris Saint Germain1·1Arsenal | Both teams to score | BTTS yes | 51% | won | +0.91u |
| 30 May | Champions League | Paris Saint Germain1·1Arsenal | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 72% | won | +0.33u |
| 30 May | Champions League | Paris Saint Germain1·1Arsenal | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 73% | won | +0.39u |
| 30 May | Champions League | Paris Saint Germain1·1Arsenal | Match result | Arsenal to win | 36% | lost | -1.00u |
| 30 May | Champions League | Paris Saint Germain1·1Arsenal | Match result | PSG to win | 37% | lost | -1.00u |
| 30 May | Champions League | Paris Saint Germain1·1Arsenal | Both teams to scoreMain | BTTS yes | 52% | won | +0.91u |
| 30 May | Champions League | Paris Saint Germain1·1Arsenal | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 71% | won | +0.33u |
| 24 May | La Liga |  Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Total goalsMain | Under 3.5 | 57% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | La Liga | Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 39% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | La Liga | Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Both teams to score | BTTS yes | 62% | won | +0.43u |
| 24 May | La Liga | Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Match result | Villarreal to win | 41% | won | +1.65u |
| 24 May | La Liga | Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82% | won | +0.15u |
| 24 May | La Liga | Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Total goals | Under 1.5 | 20% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | La Liga | Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80% | won | +0.15u |
| 24 May | La Liga | Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Total goals | Under 1.5 | 20% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | La Liga | Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Both teams to score | BTTS yes | 61% | won | +0.43u |
| 24 May | La Liga | Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Match result | Villarreal to win | 39% | won | +1.60u |
| 24 May | La Liga | Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 58% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | won | +0.26u |
| 24 May | Serie A | AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Match result | Cagliari to win | 13% | won | +11.75u |
| 24 May | Serie A | AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Match result | Milan to win | 65% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 67% | won | +0.49u |
| 24 May | Serie A | AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 56% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Total goalsMain | Under 3.5 | 68% | won | +0.49u |
| 24 May | Serie A | AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Match result | Cagliari to win | 13% | won | +11.75u |
| 24 May | Serie A | AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Match result | Milan to win | 66% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 57% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | won | +0.24u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  Torino2·2Juventus | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | won | +0.27u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Torino2·2Juventus | Match result | Juventus to win | 63% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Torino2·2Juventus | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 66% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Torino2·2Juventus | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 54% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Torino2·2Juventus | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 75% | won | +0.27u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Torino2·2Juventus | Both teams to scoreMain | BTTS no | 54% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Torino2·2Juventus | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 70% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Torino2·2Juventus | Match result | Juventus to win | 61% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  Hellas Verona0·2AS Roma | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 70% | won | +0.41u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Hellas Verona0·2AS Roma | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 52% | won | +1.09u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Hellas Verona0·2AS Roma | Match result | Roma to win | 68% | won | +0.38u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Hellas Verona0·2AS Roma | Both teams to scoreMain | BTTS no | 60% | won | +0.67u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Hellas Verona0·2AS Roma | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 74% | won | +0.31u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Hellas Verona0·2AS Roma | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 60% | won | +0.73u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Hellas Verona0·2AS Roma | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 52% | won | +1.09u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Hellas Verona0·2AS Roma | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 73% | won | +0.41u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Hellas Verona0·2AS Roma | Match result | Roma to win | 64% | won | +0.42u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Hellas Verona0·2AS Roma | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 71% | won | +0.29u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Hellas Verona0·2AS Roma | Total goals | Under 1.5 | 29% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Hellas Verona0·2AS Roma | Total goals | Under 1.5 | 29% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  Cremonese1·4Como | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76% | won | +0.24u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Cremonese1·4Como | Both teams to score | BTTS yes | 46% | won | +0.91u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Cremonese1·4Como | Match result | Como to win | 62% | won | +0.63u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Cremonese1·4Como | Total goalsMain | Under 3.5 | 68% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Cremonese1·4Como | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Cremonese1·4Como | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 71% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Cremonese1·4Como | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Cremonese1·4Como | Both teams to score | BTTS yes | 46% | won | +0.91u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Cremonese1·4Como | Match result | Como to win | 61% | won | +0.60u |
| 24 May | Serie A | Cremonese1·4Como | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 74% | won | +0.24u |
P&L is at level stake, 1 unit = £10, from the price we published when the pick was locked. Rows marked fair settle at the fair price we locked before kickoff: no bookmaker price exists on the international pipeline. Latest 100 settled picks shown for the active filters, last 90 days.
Same game multi, correlation priced from the scoreline matrix.
Cross fixture accumulator, higher return and higher variance.
Correct score from the scoreline matrix, long odds.
Player and match card bets, pending the cards model.
SharpCast publishes probabilities, not certainties. Outcomes are expressed as a likelihood with a stated confidence based on the model and the de overrounded market consensus. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.
