Settled SharpCast Picks, locked before kickoff and graded on this site, wins and losses alike. Nothing is quietly removed.
The single highest conviction pick on each fixture, the bet we would place if we could place only one. The per product breakdown below keeps Builder, ACCA, Score and Cards on their own separate records, so a combination product never flatters this single pick strike rate.
When the model says 60 percent, it should win about 60 percent of the time. Dots near the dashed line mean the probabilities are honest. Live across every settled prediction.
Every product is graded on its own settled record. A multi or accumulator hits far less often than a single by design, so its strike rate is kept entirely separate and never folded into the SharpCast Pick number above. Figures are in units; 1 unit = £10.
Single outcome per fixture, the highest conviction pick.
World Cup and international Main Outcomes, graded from pre kickoff snapshots at the fair price we locked. No bookmaker price exists on this pipeline.
Backtested and simulated. These are NOT pre kickoff locked SharpCast Picks and are not part of the on site track record. Past simulated performance is not a promise of future results. 18+ only. These figures are not the on site track record above and are not pre kickoff locked picks. They replay each product selector over historical fixtures and settle it against the real result.
Single outcome per fixture from the v1.2.3 ensemble selector, settled at the recorded 1X2 book price.
| Date | Fixture | Selection | Chance | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-19 | Metz v Paris SG | away win | 66% | hit | +0.62 |
| 2024-05-15 | Sevilla v Cadiz | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-12 | Bochum v Leverkusen | away win | 61% | hit | +0.70 |
| 2024-05-10 | Frosinone v Inter | away win | 59% | hit | +0.73 |
| 2024-05-06 | Lille v Lyon | home win | 56% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-04 | Sassuolo v Inter | away win | 69% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Darmstadt v Freiburg | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-14 | Ath Bilbao v Villarreal | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Sassuolo v Milan | away win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | M'gladbach v Dortmund | away win | 55% | hit | +1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | Cadiz v Barcelona | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-01 | Lecce v Roma | away win | 58% | miss | -1.00 |
| Date | Comp | Fixture | Market | Pick | Prob | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  England3·0Costa Rica | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 91% | won | +0.10ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  Portugal2·1Nigeria | Match result | Portugal to win | 79% | won | +0.27ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  Pakistan2·0Afghanistan | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 70% | won | +0.42ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  Argentina3·0Iceland | Match result | Argentina to win | 92% | won | +0.08ufair |
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  Iraq0·2Venezuela | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 69% | won | +0.44ufair |
| 9 Jun | Friendlies |  Saudi Arabia0·0Senegal | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 59% | won | +0.69ufair |
| 30 May | Champions League |  Paris Saint Germain1·1Arsenal | Both teams to score | BTTS yes | 52% | won | +0.91u |
| 24 May | La Liga |  Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 57% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  Hellas Verona0·2AS Roma | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 60% | won | +0.67u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  Lecce1·0Genoa | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 59% | won | +0.73u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  Cremonese1·4Como | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | won | +0.49u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  Torino2·2Juventus | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 54% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  Napoli1·0Udinese | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 55% | won | +0.83u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Fulham2·0Newcastle | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69% | won | +0.57u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Burnley1·1Wolves | Both teams to score | BTTS yes | 53% | won | +0.67u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Brighton0·3Manchester United | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 63% | won | +0.73u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Nottingham Forest1·1Bournemouth | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 64% | won | +0.63u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Sunderland2·1Chelsea | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 48% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Liverpool1·1Brentford | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 57% | won | +0.77u |
| 24 May | EPL |  West Ham3·0Leeds | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 65% | won | +0.52u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Manchester City1·2Aston Villa | Match result | Man City to win | 67% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | League One |  Bolton4·1Stockport County | Both teams to score | BTTS yes | 58% | won | +0.87u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Valencia3·1Barcelona | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 63% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Celta Vigo1·0Sevilla | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Real Madrid4·2Athletic Club | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 60% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Real Betis2·1Levante | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 56% | won | +0.79u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Getafe1·0Osasuna | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 62% | won | +0.64u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Mallorca3·0Oviedo | Match result | Mallorca to win | 57% | won | +0.52u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Espanyol1·1Real Sociedad | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Alaves1·2Rayo Vallecano | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | Serie A |  Lazio2·1Pisa | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 53% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | Serie A |  Bologna3·3Inter | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 66% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | Championship |  Hull City1·0Middlesbrough | Both teams to score | BTTS yes | 52% | lost | -1.00u |
| 22 May | Serie A |  Fiorentina1·1Atalanta | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | won | +0.54u |
| 20 May | Europa League |  SC Freiburg0·3Aston Villa | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 52% | won | +0.91u |
| 19 May | EPL | Chelsea2·1Tottenham | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 54% | won | +0.94u |
| 19 May | EPL | Bournemouth1·1Manchester City | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 59% | won | +0.74u |
| 18 May | EPL | Arsenal1·0Burnley | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 61% | won | +0.80u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Barcelona3·1Real Betis | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 55% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 |  Lyon0·4Lens | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 60% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 |  Nice0·0Metz | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 61% | won | +0.68u |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 |  Lorient0·2Le Havre | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 49% | won | +1.20u |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 |  Paris FC2·1Paris Saint Germain | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 56% | won | +0.87u |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 |  Stade Brestois 291·1Angers | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 |  Lille0·2Auxerre | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 57% | won | +0.86u |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 |  Marseille3·1Rennes | Both teams to score | BTTS yes | 68% | won | +0.40u |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 |  Strasbourg5·4Monaco | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 54% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | Serie A |  Sassuolo2·3Lecce | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 53% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | Serie A | Cagliari2·1Torino | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 56% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | Serie A | Udinese0·1Cremonese | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 61% | won | +0.78u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Levante2·0Mallorca | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 54% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Oviedo0·1Alaves | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 57% | won | +0.85u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Osasuna1·2Espanyol | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 46% | won | +1.43u |
| 17 May | La Liga |  Elche1·0Getafe | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 64% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Atletico Madrid1·0Girona | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 55% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Athletic Club1·1Celta Vigo | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 53% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Sevilla0·1Real Madrid | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69% | won | +0.50u |
| 17 May | EPL | Newcastle3·1West Ham | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 63% | won | +0.58u |
| 17 May | Serie A | Atalanta0·1Bologna | Both teams to score | BTTS yes | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Brentford2·2Crystal Palace | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL |  Everton1·3Sunderland | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Leeds1·0Brighton | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69% | won | +0.50u |
| 17 May | Serie A | Inter1·1Hellas Verona | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 58% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Manchester United3·2Nottingham Forest | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 61% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | Serie A | Genoa1·2AC Milan | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 55% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | Serie A | Juventus0·2Fiorentina | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 65% | won | +0.58u |
| 17 May | Serie A | Pisa0·3Napoli | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 59% | won | +0.75u |
| 17 May | Serie A | AS Roma2·0Lazio | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 69% | won | +0.29u |
| 17 May | Serie A | Como1·0Parma | Both teams to score | BTTS yes | 40% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga | SC Freiburg4·1RB Leipzig | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 59% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Werder Bremen0·2Borussia Dortmund | Match result | Dortmund to win | 49% | won | +1.22u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Borussia Mönchengladbach4·01899 Hoffenheim | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 54% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Union Berlin4·0FC Augsburg | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 57% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Bayern München5·11. FC Köln | Both teams to score | BTTS yes | 68% | won | +0.50u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Bayer Leverkusen1·1Hamburger SV | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 47% | won | +1.25u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Eintracht Frankfurt2·2VfB Stuttgart | Match result | Stuttgart to win | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  1. FC Heidenheim0·2FSV Mainz 05 | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 55% | won | +0.84u |
| 15 May | EPL | Aston Villa4·2Liverpool | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 56% | won | +0.90u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Real Madrid2·0Oviedo | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 61% | won | +0.78u |
| 14 May | League One |  Bradford0·1Bolton | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 55% | won | +1.00u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Girona1·1Real Sociedad | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 57% | lost | -1.00u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Valencia1·1Rayo Vallecano | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 56% | lost | -1.00u |
| 13 May | La Liga | Alaves1·0Barcelona | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 63% | won | +0.64u |
| 13 May | La Liga | Getafe3·1Mallorca | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 60% | lost | -1.00u |
| 13 May | EPL | Manchester City3·0Crystal Palace | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 50% | won | +1.10u |
| 13 May | League One | Stockport County2·0Stevenage | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 52% | won | +0.95u |
| 13 May | Ligue 1 | Lens0·2Paris Saint Germain | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 62% | won | +0.74u |
| 13 May | La Liga | Villarreal2·3Sevilla | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 55% | won | +0.89u |
| 13 May | Ligue 1 | Stade Brestois 291·2Strasbourg | Match result | Strasbourg to win | 42% | won | +1.71u |
| 12 May | La Liga | Osasuna1·2Atletico Madrid | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 48% | lost | -1.00u |
| 12 May | Championship |  Southampton2·1Middlesbrough | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 12 May | La Liga | Real Betis2·1Elche | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 67% | won | +0.52u |
| 12 May | La Liga | Celta Vigo2·3Levante | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 58% | won | +0.86u |
| 11 May | EPL | Tottenham1·1Leeds | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 56% | lost | -1.00u |
| 11 May | La Liga | Rayo Vallecano1·1Girona | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 48% | lost | -1.00u |
| 11 May | Championship |  Millwall0·2Hull City | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 51% | won | +1.05u |
| 10 May | Ligue 1 | Angers1·1Strasbourg | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 48% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | Ligue 1 | Paris Saint Germain1·0Stade Brestois 29 | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 53% | won | +1.10u |
| 10 May | Ligue 1 | Monaco0·1Lille | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | won | +0.50u |
P&L is at level stake, 1 unit = £10, from the price we published when the pick was locked. Rows marked fair settle at the fair price we locked before kickoff: no bookmaker price exists on the international pipeline. Latest 100 settled picks shown for the active filters, last 90 days.
Same game multi, correlation priced from the scoreline matrix.
Cross fixture accumulator, higher return and higher variance.
Correct score from the scoreline matrix, long odds.
Player and match card bets, pending the cards model.
SharpCast publishes probabilities, not certainties. Outcomes are expressed as a likelihood with a stated confidence based on the model and the de overrounded market consensus. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.
