SharpCast Pick
The committed pick within a specific market for a specific fixture. One per market. Each product below is tracked on its own separate record, so a combination never inflates the single pick strike rate.
SharpCast Builder
A same game multi, a build a bet, combining picks from one fixture into a single bet. The legs are priced from the joint scoreline distribution, so the combined chance accounts for how the legs move together rather than assuming they are independent.
SharpCast ACCA
A cross fixture accumulator built from the strongest single picks across the day. Higher potential return, higher variance. An accumulator is never sold as more profitable than its legs: it is more volatile, not less negative.
SharpCast Score
The correct score pick, the single most likely final scoreline from the model. Long odds by nature, so it is reported on strike rate.
SharpCast Cards
Player and match card bets, live as model estimates: each pick is a probability against a position baseline with its reasoning, never a value or price claim, because player card book odds are not attached and the referee is confirmed close to kickoff. No graded record exists yet.
Main Outcome
The single SharpCast Pick with the highest selector score across all markets for a fixture. It receives the headline treatment.
Conviction Score
A display metric on a 0 to 100 scale layered over the selector, capped at 95 as a humility buffer because no pick is ever certain. It summarises probability, value, and confidence for the reader. It does not choose the pick.
Conviction Tier
The human readable label of the Conviction Score: Strong, Healthy, Modest, Slight, or Watch.
Form Pressure
A metric on a minus 10 to plus 10 scale that captures how a team is trending into a fixture, beyond league position. Positive means form is building, negative means it is fading.
Match Profile
The four axis radar that summarises a fixture at a glance: goals, tempo, how one sided it projects, and how predictable it is.
Closing line value
How our taken price compares to the Pinnacle closing line. Positive value over many bets is the strongest available signal of model quality. This is a metric, not a branded term.
xG (expected goals)
The goal value of the chances a team created, regardless of whether they went in. A side scoring above its xG over a run has been finishing well or riding variance; below it, the reverse.
xC (expected goals conceded)
The goals a side would be expected to concede from the chances it allowed, the defensive mirror of xG. Conceding more than xC over a run points to leaky defending or poor goalkeeping; less suggests strong goalkeeping or variance due to even out.