The scores we watch
We track the Brier score, the ranked probability score, log loss, and closing line value every week. The result target for the ranked probability score is at most 0.205 on held out top leagues.
Reliability is read per outcome on a rolling window. When a probability bucket drifts from its observed strike rate, the calibration curve surfaces it.
How long before a number means something
Closing line value gives a valid signal at 50 to 100 bets. Return on investment needs 200 or more settled bets before it supports a conclusion. We report confidence intervals, not point estimates alone.