Settled SharpCast Picks, locked before kickoff and graded on this site, wins and losses alike. Nothing is quietly removed.
The single highest conviction pick on each fixture, the bet we would place if we could place only one. The per product breakdown below keeps Builder, ACCA, Score and Cards on their own separate records, so a combination product never flatters this single pick strike rate.
When the model says 60 percent, it should win about 60 percent of the time. Dots near the dashed line mean the probabilities are honest. Live across every settled prediction.
Every product is graded on its own settled record. A multi or accumulator hits far less often than a single by design, so its strike rate is kept entirely separate and never folded into the SharpCast Pick number above. Figures are in units; 1 unit = £10.
Single outcome per fixture, the highest conviction pick.
World Cup and international Main Outcomes, graded from pre kickoff snapshots at the fair price we locked. No bookmaker price exists on this pipeline.
Backtested and simulated. These are NOT pre kickoff locked SharpCast Picks and are not part of the on site track record. Past simulated performance is not a promise of future results. 18+ only. These figures are not the on site track record above and are not pre kickoff locked picks. They replay each product selector over historical fixtures and settle it against the real result.
Single outcome per fixture from the v1.2.3 ensemble selector, settled at the recorded 1X2 book price.
| Date | Fixture | Selection | Chance | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-19 | Metz v Paris SG | away win | 66% | hit | +0.62 |
| 2024-05-15 | Sevilla v Cadiz | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-12 | Bochum v Leverkusen | away win | 61% | hit | +0.70 |
| 2024-05-10 | Frosinone v Inter | away win | 59% | hit | +0.73 |
| 2024-05-06 | Lille v Lyon | home win | 56% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-04 | Sassuolo v Inter | away win | 69% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Darmstadt v Freiburg | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-14 | Ath Bilbao v Villarreal | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Sassuolo v Milan | away win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | M'gladbach v Dortmund | away win | 55% | hit | +1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | Cadiz v Barcelona | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-01 | Lecce v Roma | away win | 58% | miss | -1.00 |
| Date | Comp | Fixture | Market | Pick | Prob | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jun | Friendlies |  Pakistan2·0Afghanistan | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 70% | won | +0.42ufair |
| 9 Jun | Friendlies |  Saudi Arabia0·0Senegal | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 59% | won | +0.69ufair |
| 24 May | La Liga |  Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 57% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  Cremonese1·4Como | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | Serie A |  AC Milan1·2Cagliari | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | won | +0.49u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Fulham2·0Newcastle | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69% | won | +0.57u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Brighton0·3Manchester United | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 63% | won | +0.73u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Nottingham Forest1·1Bournemouth | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 64% | won | +0.63u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Liverpool1·1Brentford | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 57% | won | +0.77u |
| 24 May | EPL |  West Ham3·0Leeds | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 65% | won | +0.52u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Valencia3·1Barcelona | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 63% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Celta Vigo1·0Sevilla | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Real Madrid4·2Athletic Club | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 60% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Real Betis2·1Levante | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 56% | won | +0.79u |
| 23 May | Serie A |  Bologna3·3Inter | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 66% | lost | -1.00u |
| 22 May | Serie A |  Fiorentina1·1Atalanta | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | won | +0.54u |
| 19 May | EPL |  Chelsea2·1Tottenham | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 54% | won | +0.94u |
| 19 May | EPL | Bournemouth1·1Manchester City | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 59% | won | +0.74u |
| 18 May | EPL |  Arsenal1·0Burnley | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 61% | won | +0.80u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Barcelona3·1Real Betis | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 55% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 |  Lyon0·4Lens | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 60% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 |  Nice0·0Metz | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 61% | won | +0.68u |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 |  Paris FC2·1Paris Saint Germain | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 56% | won | +0.87u |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 |  Strasbourg5·4Monaco | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 54% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | Serie A |  Udinese0·1Cremonese | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 61% | won | +0.78u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Levante2·0Mallorca | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 54% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga |  Osasuna1·2Espanyol | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 46% | won | +1.43u |
| 17 May | La Liga |  Elche1·0Getafe | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 64% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Atletico Madrid1·0Girona | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 55% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Sevilla0·1Real Madrid | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69% | won | +0.50u |
| 17 May | EPL | Newcastle3·1West Ham | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 63% | won | +0.58u |
| 17 May | EPL | Brentford2·2Crystal Palace | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Leeds1·0Brighton | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69% | won | +0.50u |
| 17 May | EPL | Manchester United3·2Nottingham Forest | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 61% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | Serie A |  Juventus0·2Fiorentina | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 65% | won | +0.58u |
| 17 May | Serie A |  AS Roma2·0Lazio | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 69% | won | +0.29u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  SC Freiburg4·1RB Leipzig | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 59% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Borussia Mönchengladbach4·01899 Hoffenheim | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 54% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Union Berlin4·0FC Augsburg | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 57% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Bayer Leverkusen1·1Hamburger SV | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 47% | won | +1.25u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  1. FC Heidenheim0·2FSV Mainz 05 | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 55% | won | +0.84u |
| 15 May | EPL |  Aston Villa4·2Liverpool | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 56% | won | +0.90u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Real Madrid2·0Oviedo | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 61% | won | +0.78u |
| 14 May | League One |  Bradford0·1Bolton | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 55% | won | +1.00u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Girona1·1Real Sociedad | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 57% | lost | -1.00u |
| 13 May | La Liga |  Alaves1·0Barcelona | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 63% | won | +0.64u |
| 13 May | Ligue 1 | Lens0·2Paris Saint Germain | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 62% | won | +0.74u |
| 13 May | La Liga | Villarreal2·3Sevilla | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 55% | won | +0.89u |
| 12 May | La Liga | Real Betis2·1Elche | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 67% | won | +0.52u |
| 12 May | La Liga | Celta Vigo2·3Levante | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 58% | won | +0.86u |
| 11 May | EPL | Tottenham1·1Leeds | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 56% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | Ligue 1 | Monaco0·1Lille | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | won | +0.50u |
| 10 May | Ligue 1 |  Rennes2·1Paris FC | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 62% | won | +0.77u |
| 10 May | Ligue 1 |  Le Havre0·1Marseille | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 60% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | Ligue 1 | Metz0·4Lorient | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | La Liga | Barcelona2·0Real Madrid | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 53% | won | +1.15u |
| 10 May | Bundesliga |  1. FC Köln1·31. FC Heidenheim | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 68% | won | +0.48u |
| 10 May | EPL | West Ham0·1Arsenal | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | won | +0.48u |
| 10 May | La Liga | Athletic Club0·1Valencia | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 56% | won | +0.85u |
| 10 May | Bundesliga | Hamburger SV3·2SC Freiburg | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | EPL | Nottingham Forest1·1Newcastle | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 51% | won | +1.20u |
| 10 May | Serie A | Fiorentina0·0Genoa | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 57% | won | +0.83u |
| 10 May | EPL | Burnley2·2Aston Villa | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | La Liga | Mallorca1·1Villarreal | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 65% | won | +0.53u |
| 10 May | Serie A |  Hellas Verona0·1Como | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 68% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | La Liga | Atletico Madrid0·1Celta Vigo | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 67% | won | +0.50u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga |  VfL Wolfsburg0·1Bayern München | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 43% | won | +1.50u |
| 9 May | La Liga | Sevilla2·1Espanyol | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 46% | won | +1.42u |
| 9 May | EPL | Fulham0·1Bournemouth | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 65% | won | +0.56u |
| 9 May | EPL | Brighton3·0Wolves | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 63% | won | +0.69u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | FC Augsburg3·1Borussia Mönchengladbach | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 60% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | 1899 Hoffenheim1·0Werder Bremen | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 54% | won | +0.94u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga |  VfB Stuttgart3·1Bayer Leverkusen | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | RB Leipzig2·1FC St. Pauli | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 60% | won | +0.81u |
| 9 May | EPL | Liverpool1·1Chelsea | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 66% | lost | -1.00u |
| 4 May | EPL |  Everton3·3Manchester City | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | lost | -1.00u |
| 4 May | EPL | Chelsea1·3Nottingham Forest | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 59% | won | +0.77u |
| 3 May | La Liga | Espanyol0·2Real Madrid | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 65% | won | +0.60u |
| 3 May | Ligue 1 | Lyon4·2Rennes | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 65% | won | +0.64u |
| 3 May | EPL | Aston Villa1·2Tottenham | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 67% | won | +0.46u |
| 3 May | Bundesliga | Borussia Mönchengladbach1·0Borussia Dortmund | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 63% | won | +0.61u |
| 3 May | EPL | Manchester United3·2Liverpool | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 58% | lost | -1.00u |
| 3 May | La Liga | Getafe0·2Rayo Vallecano | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 68% | won | +0.50u |
| 3 May | EPL | Bournemouth3·0Crystal Palace | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 67% | won | +0.50u |
| 3 May | Ligue 1 | Lille1·1Le Havre | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69% | won | +0.39u |
P&L is at level stake, 1 unit = £10, from the price we published when the pick was locked. Rows marked fair settle at the fair price we locked before kickoff: no bookmaker price exists on the international pipeline. Latest 100 settled picks shown for the active filters, last 90 days.
Same game multi, correlation priced from the scoreline matrix.
Cross fixture accumulator, higher return and higher variance.
Correct score from the scoreline matrix, long odds.
Player and match card bets, pending the cards model.
SharpCast publishes probabilities, not certainties. Outcomes are expressed as a likelihood with a stated confidence based on the model and the de overrounded market consensus. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.
