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SharpCast Tips

Every product on the model's card for the selected day in one place.

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› Today

Ranked by ROI (model probability times odds, less the stake)

1 Alaves to win Barcelona v Alaves · La Liga · 20:00 11.2%Prob 23.00Odds 7.3%Edge 157.8%ROI 0.0%Kelly
2 Willem II to win PSV v Willem II · Eredivisie · 17:45 7.1%Prob 33.00Odds 4.2%Edge 135.3%ROI 0.0%Kelly
3 Göztepe to win Fenerbahçe v Göztepe · Süper Lig · 16:00 27.6%Prob 8.45Odds 16.0%Edge 133.4%ROI 0.0%Kelly
4 Monza to winMain Bologna v Monza · Serie A · 14:00 37.4%Prob 5.20Odds 18.6%Edge 94.6%ROI 0.0%Kelly
5 AZ Alkmaar to winMain Ajax v AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie · 20:00 43.2%Prob 4.18Odds 19.7%Edge 80.4%ROI 0.5%Kelly
6 Over 3.5 goalsMain Millwall v Derby · Championship · 15:00 53.4%Prob 3.10Odds 22.3%Edge 65.6%ROI 0.9%Kelly
7 Stuttgart to win Leverkusen v Stuttgart · Bundesliga · 14:30 33.9%Prob 4.77Odds 12.4%Edge 61.7%ROI 0.0%Kelly
8 Over 3.5 goalsMain Cambuur v GO Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie · 20:00 74.7%Prob 2.16Odds 29.5%Edge 61.3%ROI 1.1%Kelly
9 Over 3.5 goalsMain Milan v Inter · Serie A · 19:45 55.9%Prob 2.86Odds 22.0%Edge 59.9%ROI 1.2%Kelly
10 Brighton to winMain Man City v Brighton · EPL · 15:00 33.2%Prob 4.81Odds 12.7%Edge 59.6%ROI 0.0%Kelly
11 Draw Feyenoord v Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie · 15:30 16.9%Prob 9.45Odds 6.4%Edge 59.5%ROI 0.0%Kelly
12 Over 3.5 goals Fenerbahçe v Göztepe · Süper Lig · 16:00 64.5%Prob 2.45Odds 24.3%Edge 58.1%ROI 1.2%Kelly
13 Stevenage to winMain Leicester v Stevenage · League One · 15:00 31.7%Prob 4.92Odds 12.5%Edge 56.0%ROI 0.0%Kelly
14 Over 3.5 goalsMain Udinese v Roma · Serie A · 17:00 61.4%Prob 2.50Odds 22.7%Edge 53.5%ROI 1.1%Kelly
15 Reading to winMain Plymouth v Reading · League One · 12:30 53.3%Prob 2.83Odds 19.1%Edge 50.8%ROI 1.6%Kelly
16 Oxford United to winMain Barnsley v Oxford United · League One · 15:00 61.2%Prob 2.45Odds 20.9%Edge 50.0%ROI 1.2%Kelly
17 Watford to winMain Norwich v Watford · Championship · 12:30 22.3%Prob 6.68Odds 7.8%Edge 48.8%ROI 0.0%Kelly
18 Both teams to score · yesMain Fenerbahçe v Göztepe · Süper Lig · 16:00 Fenerbahçe hold a clear chance advantage but Göztepe are still projected to create nearly 2 expected goals, so both teams to score rates at 56 percent. 78.3%Prob 1.87Odds 25.4%Edge 46.4%ROI 1.2%Kelly
19 Over 3.5 goalsMain West Ham v West Brom · Championship · 15:00 51.4%Prob 2.82Odds 17.3%Edge 45.0%ROI 0.9%Kelly
20 Fulham to winMain Aston Villa v Fulham · EPL · 20:00 38.7%Prob 3.75Odds 11.9%Edge 45.0%ROI 0.0%Kelly
21 Malaga to win Real Betis v Malaga · La Liga · 17:30 14.5%Prob 9.77Odds 4.6%Edge 42.0%ROI 0.0%Kelly
22 Portsmouth to winMain Burnley v Portsmouth · Championship · 15:00 41.1%Prob 3.37Odds 12.4%Edge 38.5%ROI 0.4%Kelly
23 Bromley to win Wigan v Bromley · League One · 15:00 32.3%Prob 4.29Odds 9.6%Edge 38.4%ROI 0.0%Kelly
24 ST Mirren to win Motherwell v ST Mirren · Scottish Premiership · 15:00 33.1%Prob 4.10Odds 9.6%Edge 35.9%ROI 0.0%Kelly
25 GO Ahead Eagles to win Cambuur v GO Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie · 20:00 GO Ahead Eagles are projected to create the better chances at 2.96 expected goals against Cambuur's 2.15, a little above the market's 43 percent; the model rates it at 48 percent. 54.4%Prob 2.49Odds 14.3%Edge 35.4%ROI 0.7%Kelly
26 Le Mans to win Estac Troyes v Le Mans · Ligue 1 · 19:45 37.6%Prob 3.54Odds 9.4%Edge 33.0%ROI 0.0%Kelly
27 Bristol to win Bolton v Bristol · Championship · 15:00 Bristol City hold the attacking advantage in expected chances, though Bolton's home status provides meaningful resistance; an away win rates at 45 percent. 54.6%Prob 2.40Odds 13.9%Edge 31.0%ROI 0.9%Kelly
28 ST Johnstone to winMain Kilmarnock v ST Johnstone · Scottish Premiership · 15:00 38.9%Prob 3.36Odds 9.8%Edge 30.7%ROI 0.0%Kelly
29 Over 2.5 goalsMain Bolton v Bristol · Championship · 15:00 Bristol City are projected to create substantially more chances than Bolton with 2.18 expected goals to 1.41, suggesting a higher scoring match; over 2.5 goals rates at 58 percent, a little above the market's 53 percent. 69.5%Prob 1.87Odds 17.4%Edge 30.0%ROI 1.2%Kelly
30 Both teams to score · no Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie · 17:45 40.0%Prob 3.25Odds 10.4%Edge 29.8%ROI 0.1%Kelly
31 Over 2.5 goals Bologna v Monza · Serie A · 14:00 67.7%Prob 1.90Odds 15.7%Edge 28.6%ROI 1.5%Kelly
32 Man Utd to winMain Chelsea v Man Utd · EPL · 12:30 31.2%Prob 4.10Odds 6.4%Edge 28.0%ROI 0.0%Kelly
33 Over 3.5 goalsMain Levante v Atletico · La Liga · 13:00 52.6%Prob 2.42Odds 11.9%Edge 27.3%ROI 0.7%Kelly
34 Over 2.5 goalsMain Lincoln v Birmingham · Championship · 12:30 Birmingham are projected to create substantially stronger chances at 2.03 expected goals against Lincoln's 1.22, supporting a higher scoring outcome; the model puts it at 54 percent, a little above the market's 50 percent. 63.0%Prob 2.01Odds 14.3%Edge 26.6%ROI 1.5%Kelly
35 Both teams to score · yesMain PSV v Willem II · Eredivisie · 17:45 PSV Eindhoven are projected to create substantially stronger chances at 3.86 expected goals against Willem II's 1.33, leaving room for both sides to score despite the gap; the model rates both teams to score at 56 percent. 70.4%Prob 1.79Odds 17.1%Edge 26.1%ROI 1.2%Kelly
36 Over 2.5 goalsMain Moreirense v Estrela · Primeira Liga · 15:30 Moreirense are projected to create modest chances while Estrela hold a clear attacking advantage, generating around 1.8 expected goals, so over 2.5 goals rates at 54 percent, a little above the market's 50 percent. 58.0%Prob 2.17Odds 12.4%Edge 25.9%ROI 1.5%Kelly
37 Over 2.5 goalsMain Coventry v Sunderland · EPL · 15:00 The expected goals profile sits near 3.1 combined, placing over 2.5 goals slightly favoured; the model puts it at 55 percent, above the market's 50 percent. 60.5%Prob 2.08Odds 12.8%Edge 25.7%ROI 1.7%Kelly
38 Crystal Palace to win Tottenham v Crystal Palace · EPL · 17:30 22.4%Prob 5.60Odds 4.2%Edge 25.6%ROI 0.0%Kelly
39 Over 3.5 goals Barnsley v Oxford United · League One · 15:00 The expected goals split of 2.46 to 1.35 leaves over 3.5 goals as an evenly balanced proposition; the model puts it at 47 percent. 52.7%Prob 2.38Odds 12.3%Edge 25.4%ROI 0.7%Kelly
40 Under 2.5 goalsMain Rayo v Celta · La Liga · 15:15 70.9%Prob 1.76Odds 15.0%Edge 24.8%ROI 1.6%Kelly
41 Roma to win Udinese v Roma · Serie A · 17:00 79.8%Prob 1.56Odds 16.2%Edge 24.6%ROI 1.1%Kelly
42 Huddersfield to winMain Bradford v Huddersfield · League One · 12:30 Huddersfield hold a clear edge in expected chances and are modestly favoured in the match outcome; the model rates an away win at 41 percent, a little above the market's 40 percent. 50.2%Prob 2.47Odds 10.5%Edge 23.9%ROI 0.7%Kelly
43 Çorum FK to winMain Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK · Süper Lig · 10:30 46.4%Prob 2.67Odds 9.4%Edge 23.8%ROI 0.4%Kelly
44 Over 2.5 goalsMain Leyton Orient v Cambridge United · League One · 12:30 Both attacks are projected to create meaningful chances with combined expected goals around 3.3, so over 2.5 goals rates at 56 percent, a little above the market's 51 percent. 63.4%Prob 1.95Odds 13.4%Edge 23.7%ROI 1.6%Kelly
45 Under 3.5 goalsMain Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie · 17:45 Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen are projected to combine for around three expected goals, supporting a low scoring match; the model puts it at 56 percent, a little above the market's 53 percent. 65.1%Prob 1.90Odds 13.2%Edge 23.7%ROI 2.5%Kelly
46 Both teams to score · yes Bologna v Monza · Serie A · 14:00 68.6%Prob 1.80Odds 15.4%Edge 23.6%ROI 1.5%Kelly
47 Estrela to win Moreirense v Estrela · Primeira Liga · 15:30 49.1%Prob 2.51Odds 9.3%Edge 23.3%ROI 0.5%Kelly
48 Both teams to score · no Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga · 14:30 43.8%Prob 2.80Odds 9.3%Edge 22.6%ROI 0.2%Kelly
49 Millwall to win Millwall v Derby · Championship · 15:00 Millwall hold a clear edge in expected chances at 2.77 goals against Derby's 1.08, so the model rates a Millwall win at 61 percent, a little above the market's 59 percent. 72.0%Prob 1.70Odds 13.9%Edge 22.5%ROI 1.0%Kelly
50 Birmingham to win Lincoln v Birmingham · Championship · 12:30 Birmingham hold the clear attacking advantage with 2.03 expected goals to Lincoln's 1.22, so an away win rates at 49 percent, a little above the market's 45 percent. 55.5%Prob 2.20Odds 11.1%Edge 22.2%ROI 0.9%Kelly
51 Both teams to score · yesMain Barcelona v Alaves · La Liga · 20:00 64.3%Prob 1.90Odds 13.0%Edge 22.2%ROI 2.4%Kelly
52 Over 3.5 goals Kilmarnock v ST Johnstone · Scottish Premiership · 15:00 45.2%Prob 2.70Odds 9.4%Edge 22.0%ROI 0.3%Kelly
53 SC Freiburg to win FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg · Bundesliga · 14:30 SC Freiburg project the stronger attack at 2.14 expected goals against FC Augsburg's 1.59, and rate a little above the market's 43 percent at 47 percent. 49.8%Prob 2.45Odds 9.1%Edge 21.9%ROI 0.4%Kelly
54 Under 2.5 goalsMain Kocaelispor v Rizespor · Süper Lig · 13:00 63.1%Prob 1.93Odds 12.7%Edge 21.8%ROI 1.9%Kelly
55 Over 3.5 goalsMain Leverkusen v Stuttgart · Bundesliga · 14:30 Both attacks project around 4.5 combined expected goals, a moderately high scoring profile, so over 3.5 goals rates at 58 percent, a little above the market's 54 percent. 66.2%Prob 1.84Odds 12.7%Edge 21.8%ROI 1.2%Kelly
56 Under 3.5 goalsMain Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga · 14:30 71.4%Prob 1.70Odds 13.1%Edge 21.4%ROI 2.4%Kelly
57 Over 2.5 goalsMain Estac Troyes v Le Mans · Ligue 1 · 19:45 60.3%Prob 2.00Odds 10.6%Edge 20.7%ROI 1.5%Kelly
58 Both teams to score · yes West Ham v West Brom · Championship · 15:00 West Ham project 2.26 expected goals against West Brom's weaker attack of 1.49, creating a balanced scoring scenario where both sides are likely to find the net, so both teams to score rates at 63 percent. 69.7%Prob 1.73Odds 13.7%Edge 20.6%ROI 1.4%Kelly
59 Coventry to win Coventry v Sunderland · EPL · 15:00 37.3%Prob 3.23Odds 6.9%Edge 20.5%ROI 0.0%Kelly
60 Draw Rayo v Celta · La Liga · 15:15 35.8%Prob 3.34Odds 6.1%Edge 19.5%ROI 0.0%Kelly
61 Over 2.5 goalsMain Hull v Ipswich · EPL · 15:00 Both attacks project around 1.6 expected goals each on a moderately open profile, so over 2.5 goals rates at 55 percent, a little above the market's 52 percent. 61.5%Prob 1.94Odds 10.7%Edge 19.3%ROI 1.6%Kelly
62 Under 2.5 goals Standard Liege v Kortrijk · Pro League · 17:15 54.2%Prob 2.20Odds 10.2%Edge 19.3%ROI 1.1%Kelly
63 Both teams to score · no Rayo v Celta · La Liga · 15:15 Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo are each projected to create limited chances, so at least one side failing to score rates at 55 percent, a little above the market's 51 percent. 61.1%Prob 1.95Odds 12.5%Edge 19.0%ROI 1.6%Kelly
64 West Brom to win West Ham v West Brom · Championship · 15:00 24.6%Prob 4.83Odds 4.4%Edge 18.8%ROI 0.0%Kelly
65 Both teams to score · yes Milan v Inter · Serie A · 19:45 Inter project notably stronger attacking chances at 2.32 expected goals against AC Milan's 1.65, creating a balanced probability for both sides to score; the model rates it at 60 percent. 73.2%Prob 1.62Odds 13.7%Edge 18.5%ROI 1.2%Kelly
66 Both teams to score · no Plymouth v Reading · League One · 12:30 43.7%Prob 2.70Odds 8.8%Edge 18.1%ROI 0.2%Kelly
67 Draw Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga · 14:30 29.1%Prob 4.05Odds 4.5%Edge 17.9%ROI 0.0%Kelly
68 Hull to win Hull v Ipswich · EPL · 15:00 39.4%Prob 2.99Odds 6.1%Edge 17.7%ROI 0.0%Kelly
69 Both teams to score · yes Cambuur v GO Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie · 20:00 Cambuur and GO Ahead Eagles are both projected to score with reasonable frequency across the expected goals split, so both teams to score rates at 67 percent. 84.1%Prob 1.40Odds 16.7%Edge 17.7%ROI 1.1%Kelly
70 Both teams to score · no Bradford v Huddersfield · League One · 12:30 Bradford's limited attacking output at 0.87 expected goals makes it more likely that one or both teams fail to score; the model puts it at 51 percent, above the market's 47 percent. 54.7%Prob 2.15Odds 9.1%Edge 17.6%ROI 0.9%Kelly
71 Under 3.5 goalsMain Bremen v 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga · 14:30 The expected goals profile sits around 3.2 combined, placing the fixture in low to mid scoring territory, so under 3.5 goals rates at 52 percent. 59.8%Prob 1.96Odds 9.1%Edge 17.3%ROI 2.1%Kelly
72 Both teams to score · noMain Standard Liege v Kortrijk · Pro League · 17:15 55.8%Prob 2.10Odds 10.3%Edge 17.2%ROI 1.3%Kelly
73 Both teams to score · no Bremen v 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga · 14:30 35.5%Prob 3.30Odds 6.3%Edge 17.1%ROI 0.0%Kelly
74 Both teams to score · yesMain Feyenoord v Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie · 15:30 65.0%Prob 1.80Odds 11.8%Edge 17.1%ROI 2.0%Kelly
75 Both teams to score · no Kocaelispor v Rizespor · Süper Lig · 13:00 55.6%Prob 2.10Odds 10.1%Edge 16.7%ROI 1.2%Kelly
76 Over 2.5 goalsMain Wigan v Bromley · League One · 15:00 The combined expected goal output reaches approximately 3.3, reflecting attacking threat from both sides, so over 2.5 goals rates at 56 percent. 63.7%Prob 1.83Odds 10.9%Edge 16.6%ROI 1.6%Kelly
77 Luton to winMain Peterborough v Luton · League One · 15:00 Luton are projected to create the stronger attack with 2.31 expected goals against Peterborough's 1.39, so an away win rates at 52 percent, a little above the market's 50 percent. 57.6%Prob 2.02Odds 9.1%Edge 16.4%ROI 1.0%Kelly
78 Over 2.5 goalsMain FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg · Bundesliga · 14:30 71.9%Prob 1.60Odds 11.4%Edge 15.1%ROI 1.4%Kelly
79 Southampton to winMain Southampton v QPR · Championship · 15:00 Southampton hold a clear advantage in expected chances at 2.09 against QPR's 1.19, so a Southampton win rates at 52 percent, a little above the market's 50 percent. 57.4%Prob 2.00Odds 8.0%Edge 14.7%ROI 1.0%Kelly
80 Dundee Utd to winMain Dundee Utd v Hearts · Scottish Premiership · 15:00 36.4%Prob 3.15Odds 5.9%Edge 14.5%ROI 0.7%Kelly
81 Both teams to score · yes Wigan v Bromley · League One · 15:00 Both teams are projected to score around 1.5 to 1.8 expected goals, suggesting a match where each side poses a meaningful attacking threat, so both teams to score rates at 59 percent. 65.1%Prob 1.75Odds 10.6%Edge 14.0%ROI 1.6%Kelly
82 Under 2.5 goals Bradford v Huddersfield · League One · 12:30 58.8%Prob 1.93Odds 8.2%Edge 13.5%ROI 1.1%Kelly
83 Both teams to score · yes Coventry v Sunderland · EPL · 15:00 Both attacks are projected to create roughly equal chances around 1.6 expected goals each, supporting both to score; the model rates it at 59 percent, a little above the market's 56 percent. 63.0%Prob 1.80Odds 9.2%Edge 13.5%ROI 1.6%Kelly
84 Both teams to score · yes Millwall v Derby · Championship · 15:00 Millwall project the stronger chances at 2.77 expected goals while Derby retain enough attacking threat to score, so both teams to score rates at 57 percent, a little above the market's 55 percent. 62.3%Prob 1.82Odds 10.0%Edge 13.5%ROI 1.0%Kelly
85 Both teams to score · yes Estac Troyes v Le Mans · Ligue 1 · 19:45 63.1%Prob 1.80Odds 8.6%Edge 13.5%ROI 1.6%Kelly
86 Under 2.5 goals Aston Villa v Fulham · EPL · 20:00 51.3%Prob 2.20Odds 5.5%Edge 12.9%ROI 0.1%Kelly
87 Both teams to score · yes Bolton v Bristol · Championship · 15:00 Both teams are projected to score, with Bristol City the stronger attacking side at 2.18 expected goals and Bolton capable of creating chances at home; both to score rates at 63 percent. 67.6%Prob 1.67Odds 10.2%Edge 12.8%ROI 1.2%Kelly
88 Under 3.5 goalsMain Motherwell v ST Mirren · Scottish Premiership · 15:00 Both sides project around three goals combined on a low scoring profile, so under 3.5 goals rates at 67 percent, a little above the market's 65 percent. 72.7%Prob 1.55Odds 9.7%Edge 12.7%ROI 2.4%Kelly
89 Under 2.5 goals Bournemouth v Leeds · EPL · 15:00 55.9%Prob 2.00Odds 6.5%Edge 11.8%ROI 0.6%Kelly
90 Both teams to score · yes Leyton Orient v Cambridge United · League One · 12:30 Cambridge United hold a modest expected goals advantage and both sides project to score, so both teams to score rates at 61 percent. 65.7%Prob 1.70Odds 9.8%Edge 11.7%ROI 1.6%Kelly
91 Draw Stockport County v AFC Wimbledon · League One · 15:00 17.7%Prob 6.31Odds 2.9%Edge 11.7%ROI 0.0%Kelly
92 Cambridge United to win Leyton Orient v Cambridge United · League One · 12:30 Cambridge United hold a modest attacking advantage in expected chances, though Leyton Orient remain competitive; an away win rates at 40 percent. 39.7%Prob 2.81Odds 4.8%Edge 11.6%ROI 0.0%Kelly
93 Swansea to winMain Swansea v Blackburn · Championship · 15:00 Swansea hold a clear edge in expected chances at 1.97 against Blackburn's 0.9, so a Swansea win rates at 54 percent. 61.6%Prob 1.81Odds 6.9%Edge 11.5%ROI 1.2%Kelly
94 Both teams to score · noMain Bournemouth v Leeds · EPL · 15:00 50.5%Prob 2.20Odds 7.0%Edge 11.2%ROI 0.4%Kelly
95 Over 2.5 goals Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK · Süper Lig · 10:30 54.2%Prob 2.04Odds 6.5%Edge 10.6%ROI 0.5%Kelly
96 Inter to win Milan v Inter · Serie A · 19:45 Inter hold the expected goals advantage at 2.32 to 1.65, leaving an even matchup for the win; the model rates it at 50 percent. 52.4%Prob 2.11Odds 5.3%Edge 10.6%ROI 0.1%Kelly
97 Both teams to score · yes Moreirense v Estrela · Primeira Liga · 15:30 Both sides are projected to register meaningful attacking chances, with Estrela at 1.77 expected goals and Moreirense at 1.24, so both teams to score rates at 57 percent. 59.7%Prob 1.85Odds 7.2%Edge 10.5%ROI 1.0%Kelly
98 Both teams to score · yes Leverkusen v Stuttgart · Bundesliga · 14:30 Both sides are projected to create sufficient chances to score, so both teams to score rates at 74 percent. 80.3%Prob 1.36Odds 9.5%Edge 9.2%ROI 1.2%Kelly
99 Draw Kocaelispor v Rizespor · Süper Lig · 13:00 30.7%Prob 3.55Odds 3.2%Edge 9.0%ROI 0.0%Kelly
100 Both teams to score · no Motherwell v ST Mirren · Scottish Premiership · 15:00 45.8%Prob 2.38Odds 5.3%Edge 8.9%ROI 0.0%Kelly
101 Over 3.5 goals Middlesbrough v Charlton · Championship · 15:00 Middlesbrough's attacking edge is offset by Charlton's limited chance creation in a moderate scoring environment, so over 3.5 goals comes in at 51 percent. 51.6%Prob 2.11Odds 4.8%Edge 8.8%ROI 0.0%Kelly
102 Both teams to score · yesMain Middlesbrough v Charlton · Championship · 15:00 Middlesbrough project nearly three expected goals against Charlton's modest attacking threat, creating plausible conditions for both sides to score; the model rates it at 59 percent, a little above the market's 55 percent. 57.9%Prob 1.87Odds 6.6%Edge 8.3%ROI 0.9%Kelly
103 Under 2.5 goals Leicester v Stevenage · League One · 15:00 The expected goals total of 2.8 sits close to the under 2.5 threshold, leaving balanced chances either side; the model puts it at 47 percent. 47.3%Prob 2.29Odds 5.1%Edge 8.3%ROI 0.1%Kelly
104 Under 3.5 goals Plymouth v Reading · League One · 12:30 Expected goals total around 2.9 across both sides, placing the match in a low scoring profile; the model puts it at 62 percent. 67.2%Prob 1.61Odds 7.5%Edge 8.1%ROI 2.1%Kelly
105 Both teams to score · yes Hull v Ipswich · EPL · 15:00 Hull City and Ipswich are projected to create balanced chances across a close match, so both teams to score rates at 61 percent. 64.7%Prob 1.67Odds 7.3%Edge 8.0%ROI 1.5%Kelly
106 Atletico to win Levante v Atletico · La Liga · 13:00 Atletico Madrid are projected to create the stronger chances at 2.62 expected goals against Levante's 1.19, a little above the market's 62 percent; the model rates it at 65 percent. 67.4%Prob 1.60Odds 4.7%Edge 7.9%ROI 0.6%Kelly
107 Under 3.5 goals Barcelona v Alaves · La Liga · 20:00 42.3%Prob 2.55Odds 2.6%Edge 7.9%ROI 0.4%Kelly
108 Both teams to score · yes Man City v Brighton · EPL · 15:00 Both sides are projected to create sufficient chances on expected goals of 2.02 and 1.73 respectively, so both teams to score rates at 69 percent. 71.7%Prob 1.50Odds 7.0%Edge 7.6%ROI 1.6%Kelly
109 Both teams to score · yes Norwich v Watford · Championship · 12:30 Norwich's stronger attack at 2.08 expected goals combined with Watford's capacity to score suggests both sides will find the net; both teams to score rates at 61 percent. 63.2%Prob 1.70Odds 6.8%Edge 7.4%ROI 1.4%Kelly
110 Doncaster to win Milton Keynes Dons v Doncaster · League One · 15:00 28.9%Prob 3.71Odds 2.9%Edge 7.3%ROI 0.0%Kelly
111 Over 2.5 goalsMain Milton Keynes Dons v Doncaster · League One · 15:00 62.3%Prob 1.72Odds 6.2%Edge 7.2%ROI 1.1%Kelly
112 Both teams to score · yes Levante v Atletico · La Liga · 13:00 Levante are expected to score around 1.2 goals and Atletico Madrid around 2.6, giving both sides reasonable attacking prospects; the model puts it at 64 percent. 64.9%Prob 1.65Odds 7.2%Edge 7.1%ROI 1.1%Kelly
113 Over 2.5 goals Man City v Brighton · EPL · 15:00 72.2%Prob 1.48Odds 6.8%Edge 6.9%ROI 1.6%Kelly
114 Both teams to score · yes Lincoln v Birmingham · Championship · 12:30 Birmingham are the stronger attacking side at 2.03 expected goals while Lincoln project sufficient chances to threaten, so both teams to score rates at 58 percent. 61.7%Prob 1.73Odds 6.9%Edge 6.7%ROI 1.0%Kelly
115 Both teams to score · yes Kilmarnock v ST Johnstone · Scottish Premiership · 15:00 Each side is expected to score in the 1.7 to 1.8 goals range, placing both teams on course to find the net, so both teams to score rates at 63 percent. 68.0%Prob 1.57Odds 6.5%Edge 6.7%ROI 1.5%Kelly
116 Both teams to score · yes FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg · Bundesliga · 14:30 Both sides are projected to create meaningful chances on a combined 3.73 expected goals, so both teams to score rates at 73 percent. 71.0%Prob 1.50Odds 7.3%Edge 6.5%ROI 1.4%Kelly
117 Over 2.5 goals Peterborough v Luton · League One · 15:00 The combined expected goals of 3.7 indicates a high scoring profile, so over 2.5 goals rates at 69 percent, above the market's 65 percent. 71.3%Prob 1.49Odds 6.8%Edge 6.2%ROI 1.6%Kelly
118 Standard Liege to win Standard Liege v Kortrijk · Pro League · 17:15 61.0%Prob 1.74Odds 2.8%Edge 6.1%ROI 0.0%Kelly
119 Over 3.5 goals PSV v Willem II · Eredivisie · 17:45 75.7%Prob 1.40Odds 5.8%Edge 6.0%ROI 1.2%Kelly
120 Both teams to score · yes Udinese v Roma · Serie A · 17:00 AS Roma project substantially stronger attacking chances at 3.27 expected goals against Udinese's 1.02, suggesting both sides will score in most scenarios; the model rates it at 58 percent. 61.7%Prob 1.70Odds 4.9%Edge 4.9%ROI 0.4%Kelly
121 Over 2.5 goals Swansea v Blackburn · Championship · 15:00 The combined expected goals profile sits around 2.9, giving over 2.5 goals a modest probability at 52 percent. 54.5%Prob 1.91Odds 3.4%Edge 4.2%ROI 0.0%Kelly
122 Both teams to score · yesMain Real Betis v Malaga · La Liga · 17:30 Real Betis hold a clear attacking edge over Malaga while Malaga retain sufficient threat to score, so both teams to score rates at 56 percent. 57.8%Prob 1.80Odds 5.1%Edge 4.0%ROI 1.0%Kelly
123 Stoke to win Stoke v Preston · Championship · 12:30 Stoke City's expected goals edge of 0.85 goals provides a modest advantage, though Preston remain competitive; a Stoke City win rates at 53 percent. 56.6%Prob 1.83Odds 2.7%Edge 3.6%ROI 0.0%Kelly
124 Under 3.5 goalsMain Tottenham v Crystal Palace · EPL · 17:30 Tottenham project 1.75 expected goals and Crystal Palace 1.06, a combined low scoring profile; the model rates under 3.5 goals at 68 percent, a little above the market's 66 percent. 69.0%Prob 1.50Odds 4.3%Edge 3.5%ROI 1.9%Kelly
125 Both teams to score · no Aston Villa v Fulham · EPL · 20:00 45.9%Prob 2.25Odds 3.3%Edge 3.2%ROI 0.0%Kelly
126 Over 1.5 goals Burnley v Portsmouth · Championship · 15:00 75.6%Prob 1.36Odds 3.6%Edge 2.9%ROI 2.1%Kelly
127 Anderlecht to win Anderlecht v KVC Westerlo · Pro League · 19:45 Anderlecht hold the clear edge in expected chances, though the gap is moderate; the market prices a home win at 61 percent, a little above the model's 55 percent. 63.0%Prob 1.63Odds 2.6%Edge 2.7%ROI 0.6%Kelly
128 Both teams to score · yes Barnsley v Oxford United · League One · 15:00 Oxford United hold a clear attacking advantage and Barnsley are projected to score just 1.35 expected goals, making both sides scoring less likely than the market assumes; the model rates it at 67 percent. 68.1%Prob 1.50Odds 4.4%Edge 2.2%ROI 0.7%Kelly
129 Under 3.5 goalsMain Stockport County v AFC Wimbledon · League One · 15:00 Stockport County's attack is the decisive edge but AFC Wimbledon are projected to create little, pointing to a contained total; the model rates it at 60 percent. 60.5%Prob 1.69Odds 3.8%Edge 2.2%ROI 1.2%Kelly
130 Both teams to score · noMain Anderlecht v KVC Westerlo · Pro League · 19:45 39.3%Prob 2.60Odds 2.7%Edge 2.1%ROI 0.1%Kelly
131 Over 2.5 goals Norwich v Watford · Championship · 12:30 Norwich project 2.08 expected goals and Watford 1.26, pointing to a moderately high scoring match; over 2.5 goals rates at 63 percent. 64.9%Prob 1.57Odds 3.4%Edge 1.9%ROI 0.4%Kelly
132 Both teams to score · yes Peterborough v Luton · League One · 15:00 Both sides are projected to score in this fixture with Luton's stronger attack and Peterborough capable of creating chances, so both teams to score rates at 69 percent. 67.9%Prob 1.50Odds 3.6%Edge 1.9%ROI 0.6%Kelly
133 Over 1.5 goalsMain Stoke v Preston · Championship · 12:30 78.5%Prob 1.29Odds 3.9%Edge 1.3%ROI 2.7%Kelly
134 Over 1.5 goals Southampton v QPR · Championship · 15:00 84.4%Prob 1.20Odds 4.1%Edge 1.3%ROI 2.3%Kelly
135 Over 1.5 goalsMain Mansfield Town v Notts County · League One · 15:00 79.3%Prob 1.27Odds 3.0%Edge 0.7%ROI 2.4%Kelly
136 Over 1.5 goalsMain KV Mechelen v Genk · Pro League · 15:00 81.9%Prob 1.23Odds 2.7%Edge 0.7%ROI 2.6%Kelly
137 Both teams to score · yes Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK · Süper Lig · 10:30 57.2%Prob 1.75Odds 2.7%Edge 0.1%ROI 0.0%Kelly
138 Both teams to score · yes Milton Keynes Dons v Doncaster · League One · 15:00 Both sides project meaningful attacking threat with combined expected goals around 3.2, so both teams to score rates at 61 percent. 63.7%Prob 1.57Odds 3.5%Edge 0.0%ROI 0.5%Kelly
139 Both teams to score · yes Ajax v AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie · 20:00 Both sides are expected to score with AZ Alkmaar projected at 1.91 expected goals and Ajax at 1.67, so both teams to score rates at 73 percent. 70.0%Prob 1.42Odds 3.0%Edge -0.7%ROI 0.7%Kelly
140 Both teams to score · yes KV Mechelen v Genk · Pro League · 15:00 Both sides hold reasonable attacking potential across the expected goals split, making both team goals a balanced prospect; the model puts it at 62 percent. 60.9%Prob 1.62Odds 2.7%Edge -1.4%ROI 0.1%Kelly

Probabilistic framing only: the model states a probability, it does not promise an outcome. Indicative prices are derived from the model probability with margin applied; real bookmaker prices show on Pro fixtures. 18+ only. Please bet within your means. GambleAware. National Gambling Helpline 0808 8020 133. Self exclude at gamstop.co.uk.