Settled SharpCast Picks, locked before kickoff and graded on this site, wins and losses alike. Nothing is quietly removed.
The single highest conviction pick on each fixture, the bet we would place if we could place only one. The per product breakdown below keeps Builder, ACCA, Score and Cards on their own separate records, so a combination product never flatters this single pick strike rate.
When the model says 60 percent, it should win about 60 percent of the time. Dots near the dashed line mean the probabilities are honest. Live across every settled prediction.
Every product is graded on its own settled record. A multi or accumulator hits far less often than a single by design, so its strike rate is kept entirely separate and never folded into the SharpCast Pick number above. Figures are in units; 1 unit = £10.
Single outcome per fixture, the highest conviction pick.
World Cup and international Main Outcomes. Strike and ROI are graded from pre kickoff snapshots at the fair price we locked; CLV is measured on the committed World Cup picks at the real best of book price versus the Pinnacle close.
Backtested and simulated. These are NOT pre kickoff locked SharpCast Picks and are not part of the on site track record. Past simulated performance is not a promise of future results. 18+ only. These figures are not the on site track record above and are not pre kickoff locked picks. They replay each product selector over historical fixtures and settle it against the real result.
Single outcome per fixture from the v1.2.3 ensemble selector, settled at the recorded 1X2 book price.
| Date | Fixture | Selection | Chance | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-19 | Metz v Paris SG | away win | 66% | hit | +0.62 |
| 2024-05-15 | Sevilla v Cadiz | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-12 | Bochum v Leverkusen | away win | 61% | hit | +0.70 |
| 2024-05-10 | Frosinone v Inter | away win | 59% | hit | +0.73 |
| 2024-05-06 | Lille v Lyon | home win | 56% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-04 | Sassuolo v Inter | away win | 69% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Darmstadt v Freiburg | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-14 | Ath Bilbao v Villarreal | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Sassuolo v Milan | away win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | M'gladbach v Dortmund | away win | 55% | hit | +1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | Cadiz v Barcelona | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-01 | Lecce v Roma | away win | 58% | miss | -1.00 |
| Date | Comp | Fixture | Market | Pick | Prob | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jun | World Cup |  Sweden5·1Tunisia | Match result | Sweden to win | 44% | won | +1.25ufair |
| 15 Jun | World Cup | Sweden5·1Tunisia | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 75% | won | +0.33ufair |
| 15 Jun | World Cup | Sweden5·1Tunisia | Both teams to scoreMain | BTTS yes | 53% | won | +0.88ufair |
| 15 Jun | World Cup | Sweden5·1Tunisia | Double chance | Sweden or draw | 75% | won | +0.33ufair |
| 15 Jun | World Cup | Sweden5·1Tunisia | Draw no bet | Sweden draw no bet | 64% | won | +0.56ufair |
| 15 Jun | World Cup | Sweden5·1Tunisia | Asian handicap | Sweden +2 | 89% | won | +0.12ufair |
| 15 Jun | World Cup | Sweden5·1Tunisia | Result + BTTS | Sweden to win and BTTS no | 24% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup |  Ivory Coast1·0Ecuador | Match result | Ecuador to win | 56% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Ivory Coast1·0Ecuador | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 72% | won | +0.39ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Ivory Coast1·0Ecuador | Both teams to scoreMain | BTTS no | 73% | won | +0.36ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Ivory Coast1·0Ecuador | Double chance | Ecuador or draw | 90% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Ivory Coast1·0Ecuador | Draw no bet | Ecuador draw no bet | 85% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Ivory Coast1·0Ecuador | Result + BTTS | Ecuador to win and BTTS no | 45% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup |  Netherlands2·2Japan | Match result | Netherlands to win | 40% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Netherlands2·2Japan | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 75% | won | +0.33ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Netherlands2·2Japan | Both teams to scoreMain | BTTS yes | 54% | won | +0.85ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Netherlands2·2Japan | Double chance | Netherlands or draw | 72% | won | +0.40ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Netherlands2·2Japan | Asian handicap | Netherlands +2 | 87% | won | +0.16ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Netherlands2·2Japan | Result + BTTS | Netherlands to win and BTTS no | 22% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup |  Germany7·1Curaçao | Match result | Germany to win | 78% | won | +0.29ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Germany7·1Curaçao | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 61% | won | +0.63ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Germany7·1Curaçao | Both teams to scoreMain | BTTS no | 66% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Germany7·1Curaçao | Double chance | Either team to win | 81% | won | +0.23ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Germany7·1Curaçao | Draw no bet | Germany draw no bet | 96% | won | +0.04ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Germany7·1Curaçao | Asian handicap | Germany -1 | 61% | won | +0.63ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Germany7·1Curaçao | Result + BTTS | Germany to win and BTTS no | 57% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup |  Australia2·0Türkiye | Match result | Türkiye to win | 48% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Australia2·0Türkiye | Total goalsMain | Under 2.5 | 52% | won | +0.90ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Australia2·0Türkiye | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 51% | won | +0.96ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Australia2·0Türkiye | Double chance | Türkiye or draw | 79% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Australia2·0Türkiye | Draw no bet | Türkiye draw no bet | 69% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Australia2·0Türkiye | Result + BTTS | Türkiye to win and BTTS no | 28% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup |  Haiti0·1Scotland | Match result | Scotland to win | 59% | won | +0.70ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Haiti0·1Scotland | Total goalsMain | Under 2.5 | 49% | won | +1.06ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Haiti0·1Scotland | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 53% | won | +0.88ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Haiti0·1Scotland | Double chance | Scotland or draw | 87% | won | +0.16ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Haiti0·1Scotland | Draw no bet | Scotland draw no bet | 81% | won | +0.23ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Haiti0·1Scotland | Asian handicap | Scotland +1 | 87% | won | +0.16ufair |
| 14 Jun | World Cup | Haiti0·1Scotland | Result + BTTS | Scotland to win and BTTS no | 36% | won | +1.77ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup |  Brazil1·1Morocco | Match result | Brazil to win | 54% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | Brazil1·1Morocco | Total goalsMain | Under 2.5 | 59% | won | +0.70ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | Brazil1·1Morocco | Both teams to score | BTTS no | 60% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | Brazil1·1Morocco | Double chance | Brazil or draw | 85% | won | +0.17ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | Brazil1·1Morocco | Asian handicap | Brazil +1 | 85% | won | +0.17ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | Brazil1·1Morocco | Result + BTTS | Brazil to win and BTTS no | 37% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup |  Qatar1·1Switzerland | Match result | Switzerland to win | 76% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | Qatar1·1Switzerland | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 58% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | Qatar1·1Switzerland | Both teams to scoreMain | BTTS no | 67% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | Qatar1·1Switzerland | Double chance | Either team to win | 80% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | Qatar1·1Switzerland | Asian handicap | Switzerland -1 | 58% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | Qatar1·1Switzerland | Result + BTTS | Switzerland to win and BTTS no | 56% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup |  USA4·1Paraguay | Match result | Paraguay to win | 37% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | USA4·1Paraguay | Total goalsMain | Under 2.5 | 54% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | USA4·1Paraguay | Both teams to score | BTTS yes | 50% | won | +1.00ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | USA4·1Paraguay | Double chance | Paraguay or draw | 70% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | USA4·1Paraguay | Draw no bet | Paraguay draw no bet | 55% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | USA4·1Paraguay | Asian handicap | Paraguay +2 | 86% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 13 Jun | World Cup | USA4·1Paraguay | Result + BTTS | Draw and BTTS yes | 21% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup |  Canada1·1Bosnia & Herzegovina | Match result | Canada to win | 63% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | Canada1·1Bosnia & Herzegovina | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 63% | won | +0.59ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | Canada1·1Bosnia & Herzegovina | Both teams to scoreMain | BTTS no | 71% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | Canada1·1Bosnia & Herzegovina | Double chance | Either team to win | 71% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | Canada1·1Bosnia & Herzegovina | Asian handicap | Bosnia & Herzegovina +2 | 61% | won | +0.65ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | Canada1·1Bosnia & Herzegovina | Result + BTTS | Canada to win and BTTS no | 49% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup |  South Korea2·1Czech Republic | Match result | South Korea to win | 37% | won | +1.69ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | South Korea2·1Czech Republic | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 75% | won | +0.33ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | South Korea2·1Czech Republic | Both teams to scoreMain | BTTS yes | 54% | won | +0.84ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | South Korea2·1Czech Republic | Double chance | Either team to win | 69% | won | +0.46ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | South Korea2·1Czech Republic | Draw no bet | South Korea draw no bet | 54% | won | +0.85ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | South Korea2·1Czech Republic | Asian handicap | South Korea +2 | 84% | won | +0.18ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | South Korea2·1Czech Republic | Result + BTTS | Draw and BTTS yes | 22% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | South Korea2·1CzechiaC | Match result | South Korea to win | 37% | won | +1.69ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | South Korea2·1CzechiaC | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 75% | won | +0.33ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | South Korea2·1CzechiaC | Both teams to scoreMain | BTTS yes | 54% | won | +0.84ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | South Korea2·1CzechiaC | Double chance | Either team to win | 69% | won | +0.46ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | South Korea2·1CzechiaC | Draw no bet | South Korea draw no bet | 54% | won | +0.85ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | South Korea2·1CzechiaC | Asian handicap | South Korea +2 | 84% | won | +0.18ufair |
| 12 Jun | World Cup | South Korea2·1CzechiaC | Result + BTTS | Draw and BTTS yes | 22% | lost | -1.00ufair |
| 11 Jun | World Cup |  Mexico2·0South Africa | Match result | Mexico to win | 66% | won | +0.51ufair |
| 11 Jun | World Cup | Mexico2·0South Africa | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 58% | won | +0.72ufair |
| 11 Jun | World Cup | Mexico2·0South Africa | Both teams to scoreMain | BTTS no | 69% | won | +0.44ufair |
| 11 Jun | World Cup | Mexico2·0South Africa | Double chance | Either team to win | 73% | won | +0.37ufair |
| 11 Jun | World Cup | Mexico2·0South Africa | Draw no bet | Mexico draw no bet | 91% | won | +0.10ufair |
| 11 Jun | World Cup | Mexico2·0South Africa | Result + BTTS | Mexico to win and BTTS no | 51% | won | +0.96ufair |
P&L is at level stake, 1 unit = £10, from the price we published when the pick was locked. Rows marked fair settle at the fair price we locked before kickoff: no bookmaker price exists on the international pipeline. Latest 100 settled picks shown for the active filters, last 90 days.
Same game multi, correlation priced from the scoreline matrix.
Cross fixture accumulator, higher return and higher variance.
Correct score from the scoreline matrix, long odds.
Player and match card bets, pending the cards model.
SharpCast publishes probabilities, not certainties. Outcomes are expressed as a likelihood with a stated confidence based on the model and the de overrounded market consensus. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.
