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SharpCast Tips

Every product on the model's card for the selected day in one place.

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Ranked by ROI (model probability times odds, less the stake)

1 Sparta Rotterdam to win Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie · 15:45 52.3%Prob 4.29Odds 29.6%Edge 124.5%ROI 0.7%Kelly
2 Kasımpaşa to winMain Kasımpaşa v Beşiktaş · Süper Lig · 16:00 37.8%Prob 5.60Odds 20.6%Edge 111.6%ROI 0.1%Kelly
3 Famalicao to winMain SC Braga v Famalicao · Primeira Liga · 20:30 34.2%Prob 5.85Odds 17.3%Edge 100.1%ROI 0.0%Kelly
4 Over 3.5 goalsMain Charleroi v RAAL La Louvière · Pro League · 18:15 59.7%Prob 3.26Odds 29.9%Edge 94.5%ROI 1.0%Kelly
5 Racing Santander to win Racing Santander v Real Madrid · La Liga · 15:15 16.1%Prob 11.50Odds 7.4%Edge 84.8%ROI 0.0%Kelly
6 Over 3.5 goalsMain Telstar v Utrecht · Eredivisie · 13:30 68.1%Prob 2.56Odds 29.7%Edge 74.4%ROI 1.2%Kelly
7 Toulouse to win Marseille v Toulouse · Ligue 1 · 19:45 45.2%Prob 3.80Odds 19.1%Edge 71.7%ROI 0.4%Kelly
8 Over 3.5 goalsMain Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie · 15:45 77.8%Prob 2.11Odds 31.9%Edge 64.1%ROI 1.1%Kelly
9 Over 3.5 goalsMain Strasbourg v Auxerre · Ligue 1 · 14:00 65.4%Prob 2.49Odds 26.4%Edge 62.8%ROI 1.2%Kelly
10 Over 3.5 goalsMain Amed v Eyüpspor · Süper Lig · 10:30 Amed hold a clear expected goals advantage, though Eyüpspor's weak attacking profile of 0.56 expected goals limits the likelihood of four or more total goals; the model puts over 3.5 goals at 42 percent. 59.9%Prob 2.67Odds 23.6%Edge 59.9%ROI 1.2%Kelly
11 Santa Clara to winMain Maritimo v Santa Clara · Primeira Liga · 18:00 60.2%Prob 2.48Odds 20.4%Edge 49.2%ROI 2.2%Kelly
12 Valencia to winMain Elche v Valencia · La Liga · 17:30 43.9%Prob 3.36Odds 14.1%Edge 47.4%ROI 0.9%Kelly
13 Over 3.5 goalsMain Athletic v Real Sociedad · La Liga · 20:00 The combined expected goals total around 3.6, but the distribution favours outcomes near three goals; over 3.5 goals comes in at 41 percent. 48.3%Prob 3.05Odds 16.6%Edge 47.4%ROI 0.7%Kelly
14 Over 3.5 goalsMain Marseille v Toulouse · Ligue 1 · 19:45 63.4%Prob 2.32Odds 21.0%Edge 47.1%ROI 1.2%Kelly
15 Over 3.5 goalsMain Başakşehir v Samsunspor · Süper Lig · 13:00 54.6%Prob 2.68Odds 18.3%Edge 46.4%ROI 1.0%Kelly
16 Cagliari to win Lazio v Cagliari · Serie A · 14:00 19.1%Prob 7.52Odds 5.9%Edge 43.8%ROI 0.0%Kelly
17 Over 3.5 goalsMain Lazio v Cagliari · Serie A · 14:00 44.1%Prob 3.21Odds 13.8%Edge 41.6%ROI 0.4%Kelly
18 Under 2.5 goalsMain Lommel United v Gent · Pro League · 17:30 67.4%Prob 2.10Odds 21.4%Edge 41.6%ROI 1.6%Kelly
19 Over 3.5 goals Excelsior v Twente · Eredivisie · 13:30 62.6%Prob 2.25Odds 19.3%Edge 40.9%ROI 1.2%Kelly
20 OH Leuven to winMain St. Truiden v OH Leuven · Pro League · 15:00 28.1%Prob 4.95Odds 8.4%Edge 39.1%ROI 0.0%Kelly
21 Paris FC to winMain Paris FC v Monaco · Ligue 1 · 16:15 Paris FC hold the clear edge in expected chances with 1.78 against 1.06, so a Paris FC win rates at 43 percent, a little above the market's 39 percent. 53.5%Prob 2.57Odds 15.1%Edge 37.6%ROI 2.1%Kelly
22 Draw Trabzonspor v Gaziantep FK · Süper Lig · 13:00 17.8%Prob 7.50Odds 4.8%Edge 33.5%ROI 0.0%Kelly
23 Both teams to score · no Lommel United v Gent · Pro League · 17:30 60.4%Prob 2.20Odds 16.8%Edge 32.8%ROI 1.6%Kelly
24 Over 3.5 goalsMain Cercle Brugge v Antwerp · Pro League · 12:30 43.8%Prob 3.02Odds 11.1%Edge 32.3%ROI 0.3%Kelly
25 Başakşehir to win Başakşehir v Samsunspor · Süper Lig · 13:00 Başakşehir hold a clear advantage in expected chances with 2.77 against Samsunspor's 1.14, so a home win rates at 58 percent, a little above the market's 53 percent. 71.0%Prob 1.86Odds 17.7%Edge 32.0%ROI 1.1%Kelly
26 Antwerp to win Cercle Brugge v Antwerp · Pro League · 12:30 37.6%Prob 3.50Odds 9.5%Edge 31.7%ROI 0.0%Kelly
27 Twente to winMain Excelsior v Twente · Eredivisie · 13:30 Twente are projected to create substantially more chances, with 3.56 expected goals against Excelsior's 0.82, so a Twente win rates at 66 percent. 86.0%Prob 1.53Odds 21.1%Edge 31.6%ROI 1.2%Kelly
28 Telstar to win Telstar v Utrecht · Eredivisie · 13:30 37.2%Prob 3.44Odds 8.4%Edge 27.9%ROI 0.0%Kelly
29 ADO Den Haag to winMain PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag · Eredivisie · 11:15 41.5%Prob 3.05Odds 9.5%Edge 26.7%ROI 1.0%Kelly
30 Draw Como v Venezia · Serie A · 11:30 20.5%Prob 6.12Odds 4.4%Edge 25.5%ROI 0.0%Kelly
31 Both teams to score · yes Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie · 15:45 Groningen project 2.33 expected goals and Sparta Rotterdam 3.02, supporting a scenario where both sides score, so both teams to score rates at 65 percent. 86.0%Prob 1.45Odds 20.5%Edge 24.7%ROI 1.1%Kelly
32 Both teams to score · yes Charleroi v RAAL La Louvière · Pro League · 18:15 Charleroi hold a clear attacking advantage with 3.1 expected goals against RAAL La Louvière's 1.09, making both sides scoring unlikely; the model puts it at 54 percent. 63.6%Prob 1.95Odds 14.2%Edge 24.1%ROI 1.0%Kelly
33 Charleroi to win Charleroi v RAAL La Louvière · Pro League · 18:15 Charleroi are the stronger side with nearly three times the expected goals of RAAL La Louvière; the model rates a Charleroi win at 65 percent. 76.4%Prob 1.62Odds 15.6%Edge 23.8%ROI 1.0%Kelly
34 Both teams to score · yes Strasbourg v Auxerre · Ligue 1 · 14:00 Strasbourg project to the stronger attack and Auxerre are expected to create around two goals, so both teams to score rates at 61 percent. 78.6%Prob 1.57Odds 17.2%Edge 23.4%ROI 1.2%Kelly
35 Genoa to winMain Lecce v Genoa · Serie A · 17:00 Genoa hold a modest advantage in expected chances, though Lecce retain real opportunity at home; a Genoa win rates at 41 percent, a little above the market's 38 percent. 47.8%Prob 2.58Odds 9.3%Edge 23.4%ROI 0.4%Kelly
36 Both teams to score · yes Telstar v Utrecht · Eredivisie · 13:30 Both Telstar and Utrecht carry sufficient attacking threat to register chances, so both teams to score rates at 63 percent. 81.6%Prob 1.50Odds 18.6%Edge 22.4%ROI 1.2%Kelly
37 Both teams to score · yes Lazio v Cagliari · Serie A · 14:00 62.4%Prob 1.95Odds 13.7%Edge 21.6%ROI 1.5%Kelly
38 Both teams to score · noMain Liverpool v Arsenal · EPL · 16:30 52.7%Prob 2.30Odds 10.7%Edge 21.3%ROI 1.0%Kelly
39 Under 3.5 goalsMain Como v Venezia · Serie A · 11:30 64.7%Prob 1.87Odds 12.0%Edge 21.0%ROI 2.5%Kelly
40 Draw Lommel United v Gent · Pro League · 17:30 31.4%Prob 3.85Odds 6.0%Edge 20.9%ROI 0.0%Kelly
41 Under 2.5 goals Liverpool v Arsenal · EPL · 16:30 58.9%Prob 2.04Odds 9.6%Edge 20.1%ROI 1.3%Kelly
42 Amed to win Amed v Eyüpspor · Süper Lig · 10:30 90.8%Prob 1.31Odds 14.6%Edge 18.9%ROI 1.2%Kelly
43 Both teams to score · yes Marseille v Toulouse · Ligue 1 · 19:45 Both attacks are projected to score with Marseille at 2.03 and Toulouse at 2.34 expected goals, so both teams to score rates at 65 percent. 79.1%Prob 1.50Odds 14.0%Edge 18.6%ROI 1.2%Kelly
44 Both teams to score · yesMain Racing Santander v Real Madrid · La Liga · 15:15 Real Madrid are projected to score considerably more than Racing Santander, whose attack is limited at 1.45 expected goals; both teams finding the net rates at 60 percent. 72.8%Prob 1.62Odds 13.3%Edge 18.0%ROI 1.5%Kelly
45 Over 2.5 goals Lecce v Genoa · Serie A · 17:00 Combined expected goals of 2.59 sit only slightly above the 2.5 threshold on a moderate scoring profile, so over 2.5 goals rates at 43 percent. 47.9%Prob 2.44Odds 7.0%Edge 16.9%ROI 0.2%Kelly
46 Over 2.5 goalsMain Lyon v Angers · Ligue 1 · 16:15 Lyon are projected to create significantly stronger chances than Angers, with around 2.4 expected goals to 1.0, supporting a higher scoring match; over 2.5 goals rates at 65 percent. 66.5%Prob 1.75Odds 9.5%Edge 16.4%ROI 1.9%Kelly
47 Under 3.5 goalsMain Trabzonspor v Gaziantep FK · Süper Lig · 13:00 Expected goals total around 3.4, placing total goals near the 3.5 threshold; the model rates under 3.5 at 51 percent as a balanced proposition. 56.2%Prob 2.06Odds 8.0%Edge 15.8%ROI 1.6%Kelly
48 Both teams to score · yes Athletic v Real Sociedad · La Liga · 20:00 Athletic Club project 2.16 expected goals and Real Sociedad 1.44, suggesting both sides will find the net; the model rates both teams to score at 63 percent, a little above the market's 59 percent. 67.9%Prob 1.70Odds 10.9%Edge 15.4%ROI 1.4%Kelly
49 Arsenal to win Liverpool v Arsenal · EPL · 16:30 Arsenal hold the modest attacking advantage with 1.33 expected goals to Liverpool's 1.0, so an Arsenal win rates at 40 percent, a little above the market's 38 percent. 43.4%Prob 2.63Odds 5.8%Edge 14.0%ROI 0.0%Kelly
50 Both teams to score · noMain Juventus v Napoli · Serie A · 19:45 50.6%Prob 2.25Odds 7.6%Edge 13.9%ROI 0.5%Kelly
51 Sevilla to win Getafe v Sevilla · La Liga · 13:00 Sevilla hold a modest edge in expected chances, but Getafe remain competitive at home with 1.06 expected goals, so an away win rates at 44 percent. 44.1%Prob 2.55Odds 4.9%Edge 12.6%ROI 0.0%Kelly
52 Auxerre to win Strasbourg v Auxerre · Ligue 1 · 14:00 27.1%Prob 4.16Odds 3.4%Edge 12.5%ROI 0.0%Kelly
53 Both teams to score · yes Cercle Brugge v Antwerp · Pro League · 12:30 Cercle Brugge and Antwerp are each expected to create chances in the 1.7 range, supporting a both teams scoring outcome at 64 percent. 67.1%Prob 1.67Odds 8.9%Edge 12.0%ROI 1.6%Kelly
54 Athletic to win Athletic v Real Sociedad · La Liga · 20:00 Athletic Club hold a modest expected goals advantage at 2.16 against 1.44, but Real Sociedad remain competitive; a home win rates at 49 percent, roughly aligned with the market's 48 percent. 53.6%Prob 2.07Odds 5.8%Edge 10.9%ROI 0.2%Kelly
55 Napoli to win Juventus v Napoli · Serie A · 19:45 32.0%Prob 3.46Odds 3.1%Edge 10.7%ROI 0.0%Kelly
56 Rio Ave to win Academico Viseu v Rio Ave · Primeira Liga · 18:00 25.5%Prob 4.34Odds 3.0%Edge 10.5%ROI 0.0%Kelly
57 Both teams to score · no Maritimo v Santa Clara · Primeira Liga · 18:00 60.7%Prob 1.82Odds 7.7%Edge 10.4%ROI 1.3%Kelly
58 Over 1.5 goalsMain Getafe v Sevilla · La Liga · 13:00 Sevilla's attack is projected to create the better chances at 1.42 expected goals, and combined scoring reaches around 2.5 goals, so over 1.5 goals rates at 66 percent, a little above the market's 62 percent. 72.0%Prob 1.53Odds 7.6%Edge 10.1%ROI 2.6%Kelly
59 Under 3.5 goalsMain Arouca v Nacional · Primeira Liga · 15:30 78.5%Prob 1.40Odds 9.7%Edge 10.0%ROI 2.2%Kelly
60 Both teams to score · no Arouca v Nacional · Primeira Liga · 15:30 56.4%Prob 1.95Odds 7.5%Edge 10.0%ROI 0.9%Kelly
61 Under 3.5 goals Kasımpaşa v Beşiktaş · Süper Lig · 16:00 The match is expected to stay low scoring at under 2.9 goals combined, with both attacks modest in output, so under 3.5 goals rates at 69 percent, a little above the market's 64 percent. 68.5%Prob 1.60Odds 7.5%Edge 9.6%ROI 2.6%Kelly
62 Both teams to score · yes Lyon v Angers · Ligue 1 · 16:15 58.4%Prob 1.87Odds 7.3%Edge 9.2%ROI 1.0%Kelly
63 Both teams to score · yes St. Truiden v OH Leuven · Pro League · 15:00 Both sides are projected to create sufficient chances to score, with St. Truiden at 1.89 expected goals and OH Leuven at 1.4, so both teams to score comes in at 61 percent. 64.6%Prob 1.67Odds 7.2%Edge 7.8%ROI 1.6%Kelly
64 Over 2.5 goals St. Truiden v OH Leuven · Pro League · 15:00 64.0%Prob 1.68Odds 6.2%Edge 7.5%ROI 1.2%Kelly
65 Both teams to score · no Paris FC v Monaco · Ligue 1 · 16:15 45.1%Prob 2.38Odds 4.2%Edge 7.4%ROI 0.0%Kelly
66 Under 3.5 goals Juventus v Napoli · Serie A · 19:45 77.8%Prob 1.38Odds 6.7%Edge 7.4%ROI 2.4%Kelly
67 Over 3.5 goals Racing Santander v Real Madrid · La Liga · 15:15 Real Madrid hold a substantial expected goal advantage with 2.96 against Racing Santander's 1.45, pointing to a higher scoring match; the model rates over 3.5 goals at 62 percent. 63.9%Prob 1.67Odds 4.9%Edge 6.7%ROI 0.6%Kelly
68 Both teams to score · yes Getafe v Sevilla · La Liga · 13:00 Both sides are projected to score at modest rates around 1.1 to 1.4 expected goals each, so both teams to score comes in at 47 percent. 50.7%Prob 2.10Odds 4.5%Edge 6.5%ROI 0.0%Kelly
69 Both teams to score · yes Kasımpaşa v Beşiktaş · Süper Lig · 16:00 Both sides project to around 1.4 expected goals each on a fairly even attacking profile, so both teams to score rates at 54 percent. 59.0%Prob 1.80Odds 4.0%Edge 6.1%ROI 0.8%Kelly
70 Both teams to score · no Como v Venezia · Serie A · 11:30 48.0%Prob 2.20Odds 4.5%Edge 5.7%ROI 0.0%Kelly
71 Under 3.5 goalsMain Academico Viseu v Rio Ave · Primeira Liga · 18:00 77.7%Prob 1.36Odds 6.8%Edge 5.7%ROI 2.5%Kelly
72 Both teams to score · no Excelsior v Twente · Eredivisie · 13:30 45.5%Prob 2.32Odds 4.3%Edge 5.4%ROI 0.0%Kelly
73 Both teams to score · no Elche v Valencia · La Liga · 17:30 47.5%Prob 2.20Odds 3.2%Edge 4.5%ROI 0.0%Kelly
74 Under 3.5 goalsMain Frankfurt v Hamburger SV · Bundesliga · 16:30 Frankfurt project 2.2 expected goals and Hamburg 1.17, a combined low scoring profile that suggests few goals, so under 3.5 rates at 59 percent, a little above the market's 54 percent. 56.7%Prob 1.84Odds 3.3%Edge 4.3%ROI 0.9%Kelly
75 Both teams to score · yes Başakşehir v Samsunspor · Süper Lig · 13:00 Başakşehir are the stronger side on expected chances, but Samsunspor are projected to create enough to score; the model puts both teams scoring at 60 percent. 64.1%Prob 1.62Odds 5.4%Edge 3.8%ROI 0.7%Kelly
76 Under 3.5 goalsMain Sheff Wed v Blackpool · League One · 14:00 The combined expected goals total sits around 3.0, suggesting a lower scoring match, so under 3.5 goals rates at 62 percent. 64.7%Prob 1.60Odds 4.5%Edge 3.6%ROI 1.7%Kelly
77 Both teams to score · no Academico Viseu v Rio Ave · Primeira Liga · 18:00 51.8%Prob 2.00Odds 4.2%Edge 3.6%ROI 0.0%Kelly
78 Under 3.5 goalsMain Union Berlin v Köln · Bundesliga · 14:30 69.6%Prob 1.48Odds 4.2%Edge 3.0%ROI 2.0%Kelly
79 Both teams to score · no Sheff Wed v Blackpool · League One · 14:00 41.9%Prob 2.45Odds 2.9%Edge 2.7%ROI 0.0%Kelly
80 Over 1.5 goals Maritimo v Santa Clara · Primeira Liga · 18:00 67.1%Prob 1.52Odds 2.7%Edge 2.0%ROI 0.2%Kelly
81 Both teams to score · no Amed v Eyüpspor · Süper Lig · 10:30 58.2%Prob 1.75Odds 3.4%Edge 1.8%ROI 0.1%Kelly
82 Under 3.5 goals Elche v Valencia · La Liga · 17:30 74.0%Prob 1.37Odds 2.7%Edge 1.3%ROI 1.3%Kelly
83 Under 3.5 goals SC Braga v Famalicao · Primeira Liga · 20:30 76.5%Prob 1.32Odds 3.5%Edge 1.0%ROI 2.4%Kelly

Probabilistic framing only: the model states a probability, it does not promise an outcome. Indicative prices are derived from the model probability with margin applied; real bookmaker prices show on Pro fixtures. 18+ only. Please bet within your means. GambleAware. National Gambling Helpline 0808 8020 133. Self exclude at gamstop.co.uk.