Settled SharpCast Picks, locked before kickoff and graded on this site, wins and losses alike. Nothing is quietly removed.
The single highest conviction pick on each fixture, the bet we would place if we could place only one. The per product breakdown below keeps Builder, ACCA, Score and Cards on their own separate records, so a combination product never flatters this single pick strike rate.
When the model says 60 percent, it should win about 60 percent of the time. Dots near the dashed line mean the probabilities are honest. Live across every settled prediction.
Every product is graded on its own settled record. A multi or accumulator hits far less often than a single by design, so its strike rate is kept entirely separate and never folded into the SharpCast Pick number above. Figures are in units; 1 unit = £10.
Single outcome per fixture, the highest conviction pick.
World Cup and international Main Outcomes, graded from pre kickoff snapshots at the fair price we locked. No bookmaker price exists on this pipeline.
Backtested and simulated. These are NOT pre kickoff locked SharpCast Picks and are not part of the on site track record. Past simulated performance is not a promise of future results. 18+ only. These figures are not the on site track record above and are not pre kickoff locked picks. They replay each product selector over historical fixtures and settle it against the real result.
Single outcome per fixture from the v1.2.3 ensemble selector, settled at the recorded 1X2 book price.
| Date | Fixture | Selection | Chance | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-19 | Metz v Paris SG | away win | 66% | hit | +0.62 |
| 2024-05-15 | Sevilla v Cadiz | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-12 | Bochum v Leverkusen | away win | 61% | hit | +0.70 |
| 2024-05-10 | Frosinone v Inter | away win | 59% | hit | +0.73 |
| 2024-05-06 | Lille v Lyon | home win | 56% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-04 | Sassuolo v Inter | away win | 69% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Darmstadt v Freiburg | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-14 | Ath Bilbao v Villarreal | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Sassuolo v Milan | away win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | M'gladbach v Dortmund | away win | 55% | hit | +1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | Cadiz v Barcelona | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-01 | Lecce v Roma | away win | 58% | miss | -1.00 |
| Date | Comp | Fixture | Market | Pick | Prob | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May | La Liga |  Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Match result | Villarreal to win | 41% | won | +1.65u |
| 24 May | La Liga | Villarreal5·1Atletico Madrid | Match result | Villarreal to win | 39% | won | +1.60u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Valencia3·1Barcelona | Match result | Barcelona to win | 52% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Valencia3·1Barcelona | Match result | Barcelona to win | 52% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Celta Vigo1·0Sevilla | Match result | Celta to win | 49% | won | +1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Celta Vigo1·0Sevilla | Match result | Celta to win | 49% | won | +1.02u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Espanyol1·1Real Sociedad | Match result | Real Sociedad to win | 33% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Espanyol1·1Real Sociedad | Match result | Espanyol to win | 41% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Espanyol1·1Real Sociedad | Match result | Real Sociedad to win | 35% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Espanyol1·1Real Sociedad | Match result | Espanyol to win | 40% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Real Madrid4·2Athletic Club | Match result | Real Madrid to win | 61% | won | +0.55u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Real Madrid4·2Athletic Club | Match result | Real Madrid to win | 60% | won | +0.53u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Alaves1·2Rayo Vallecano | Match result | Alaves to win | 36% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Alaves1·2Rayo Vallecano | Match result | Alaves to win | 38% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Real Betis2·1Levante | Match result | Real Betis to win | 43% | won | +1.45u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Real Betis2·1Levante | Match result | Real Betis to win | 45% | won | +1.38u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Getafe1·0Osasuna | Match result | Getafe to win | 36% | won | +1.80u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Getafe1·0Osasuna | Match result | Getafe to win | 36% | won | +1.83u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Girona1·1Elche | Match result | Elche to win | 28% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Girona1·1Elche | Match result | Girona to win | 47% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Girona1·1Elche | Match result | Elche to win | 28% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Girona1·1Elche | Match result | Girona to win | 48% | lost | -1.00u |
| 23 May | La Liga |  Mallorca3·0Oviedo | Match resultMain | Mallorca to win | 57% | won | +0.52u |
| 23 May | La Liga | Mallorca3·0Oviedo | Match result | Mallorca to win | 55% | won | +0.52u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Barcelona3·1Real Betis | Match result | Barcelona to win | 63% | won | +0.37u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Barcelona3·1Real Betis | Match result | Barcelona to win | 63% | won | +0.37u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Atletico Madrid1·0Girona | Match result | Girona to win | 27% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Atletico Madrid1·0Girona | Match result | Atletico to win | 49% | won | +0.81u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Atletico Madrid1·0Girona | Match result | Girona to win | 26% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Atletico Madrid1·0Girona | Match result | Atletico to win | 49% | won | +0.81u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Athletic Club1·1Celta Vigo | Match result | Athletic to win | 38% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Athletic Club1·1Celta Vigo | Match result | Athletic to win | 35% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Sevilla0·1Real Madrid | Match result | Real Madrid to win | 48% | won | +1.24u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Sevilla0·1Real Madrid | Match result | Real Madrid to win | 48% | won | +1.24u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Levante2·0Mallorca | Match result | Levante to win | 48% | won | +1.18u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Levante2·0Mallorca | Match result | Levante to win | 48% | won | +1.18u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Real Sociedad3·4Valencia | Match result | Valencia to win | 37% | won | +2.18u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Real Sociedad3·4Valencia | Match result | Real Sociedad to win | 37% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Real Sociedad3·4Valencia | Match result | Valencia to win | 35% | won | +2.18u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Real Sociedad3·4Valencia | Match result | Real Sociedad to win | 38% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Oviedo0·1Alaves | Match result | Alaves to win | 47% | won | +1.07u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Oviedo0·1Alaves | Match result | Alaves to win | 47% | won | +1.07u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Osasuna1·2Espanyol | Match result | Osasuna to win | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Osasuna1·2Espanyol | Match result | Osasuna to win | 45% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Rayo Vallecano2·0Villarreal | Match result | Rayo to win | 43% | won | +1.06u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Rayo Vallecano2·0Villarreal | Match result | Rayo to win | 41% | won | +1.06u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Rayo Vallecano2·0Villarreal | Match result | Villarreal to win | 31% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Elche1·0Getafe | Match result | Elche to win | 38% | won | +1.45u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Elche1·0Getafe | Match result | Elche to win | 38% | won | +1.45u |
| 17 May | La Liga | Elche1·0Getafe | Match result | Getafe to win | 33% | lost | -1.00u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Real Madrid2·0Oviedo | Match result | Oviedo to win | 14% | lost | -1.00u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Real Madrid2·0Oviedo | Match result | Real Madrid to win | 69% | won | +0.24u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Real Madrid2·0Oviedo | Match result | Oviedo to win | 14% | lost | -1.00u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Real Madrid2·0Oviedo | Match result | Real Madrid to win | 70% | won | +0.24u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Girona1·1Real Sociedad | Match result | Real Sociedad to win | 32% | lost | -1.00u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Girona1·1Real Sociedad | Match result | Girona to win | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Girona1·1Real Sociedad | Match result | Girona to win | 44% | lost | -1.00u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Valencia1·1Rayo Vallecano | Match result | Rayo to win | 31% | lost | -1.00u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Valencia1·1Rayo Vallecano | Match result | Valencia to win | 40% | lost | -1.00u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Valencia1·1Rayo Vallecano | Match result | Rayo to win | 31% | lost | -1.00u |
| 14 May | La Liga | Valencia1·1Rayo Vallecano | Match result | Valencia to win | 40% | lost | -1.00u |
| 13 May | La Liga | Alaves1·0Barcelona | Match result | Barcelona to win | 49% | lost | -1.00u |
| 13 May | La Liga | Alaves1·0Barcelona | Match result | Barcelona to win | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 13 May | La Liga | Getafe3·1Mallorca | Match result | Getafe to win | 42% | won | +1.41u |
| 13 May | La Liga | Getafe3·1Mallorca | Match result | Getafe to win | 39% | won | +1.41u |
| 13 May | La Liga | Villarreal2·3Sevilla | Match result | Villarreal to win | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 13 May | La Liga | Villarreal2·3Sevilla | Match result | Villarreal to win | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 13 May | La Liga | Espanyol2·0Athletic Club | Match result | Athletic to win | 37% | lost | -1.00u |
| 13 May | La Liga | Espanyol2·0Athletic Club | Match result | Athletic to win | 38% | lost | -1.00u |
| 12 May | La Liga | Osasuna1·2Atletico Madrid | Match result | Osasuna to win | 37% | lost | -1.00u |
| 12 May | La Liga | Osasuna1·2Atletico Madrid | Match result | Osasuna to win | 37% | lost | -1.00u |
| 12 May | La Liga | Real Betis2·1Elche | Match result | Real Betis to win | 54% | won | +0.70u |
| 12 May | La Liga | Real Betis2·1Elche | Match result | Real Betis to win | 56% | won | +0.70u |
| 12 May | La Liga | Celta Vigo2·3Levante | Match result | Celta to win | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 12 May | La Liga | Celta Vigo2·3Levante | Match result | Celta to win | 52% | lost | -1.00u |
| 11 May | La Liga | Rayo Vallecano1·1Girona | Match result | Rayo to win | 38% | lost | -1.00u |
| 11 May | La Liga | Rayo Vallecano1·1Girona | Match result | Rayo to win | 38% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | La Liga | Barcelona2·0Real Madrid | Match result | Real Madrid to win | 27% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | La Liga | Barcelona2·0Real Madrid | Match result | Barcelona to win | 53% | won | +0.72u |
| 10 May | La Liga | Barcelona2·0Real Madrid | Match result | Barcelona to win | 53% | won | +0.72u |
| 10 May | La Liga | Oviedo0·0Getafe | Match result | Getafe to win | 34% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | La Liga | Oviedo0·0Getafe | Match result | Oviedo to win | 34% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | La Liga | Oviedo0·0Getafe | Match result | Oviedo to win | 34% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | La Liga | Athletic Club0·1Valencia | Match result | Athletic to win | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | La Liga | Athletic Club0·1Valencia | Match result | Athletic to win | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | La Liga | Mallorca1·1Villarreal | Match result | Villarreal to win | 39% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | La Liga | Mallorca1·1Villarreal | Match result | Villarreal to win | 40% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | La Liga | Real Sociedad2·2Real Betis | Match result | Real Betis to win | 41% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | La Liga | Real Sociedad2·2Real Betis | Match result | Real Betis to win | 40% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | La Liga | Atletico Madrid0·1Celta Vigo | Match result | Celta to win | 32% | won | +2.54u |
| 9 May | La Liga | Atletico Madrid0·1Celta Vigo | Match result | Atletico to win | 43% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | La Liga | Atletico Madrid0·1Celta Vigo | Match result | Celta to win | 32% | won | +2.54u |
| 9 May | La Liga | Atletico Madrid0·1Celta Vigo | Match result | Atletico to win | 42% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | La Liga | Sevilla2·1Espanyol | Match result | Sevilla to win | 43% | won | +1.10u |
| 9 May | La Liga | Sevilla2·1Espanyol | Match result | Sevilla to win | 43% | won | +1.18u |
| 9 May | La Liga | Elche1·1Alaves | Match result | Elche to win | 38% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | La Liga | Elche1·1Alaves | Match result | Elche to win | 38% | lost | -1.00u |
| 3 May | La Liga | Espanyol0·2Real Madrid | Match result | Real Madrid to win | 54% | won | +0.78u |
| 3 May | La Liga | Espanyol0·2Real Madrid | Match result | Draw | 25% | lost | -1.00u |
| 3 May | La Liga | Espanyol0·2Real Madrid | Match result | Espanyol to win | 21% | lost | -1.00u |
P&L is at level stake, 1 unit = £10, from the price we published when the pick was locked. Latest 100 settled picks shown for the active filters, last 90 days.
Same game multi, correlation priced from the scoreline matrix.
Cross fixture accumulator, higher return and higher variance.
Correct score from the scoreline matrix, long odds.
Player and match card bets, pending the cards model.
SharpCast publishes probabilities, not certainties. Outcomes are expressed as a likelihood with a stated confidence based on the model and the de overrounded market consensus. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.
