Settled SharpCast Picks, locked before kickoff and graded on this site, wins and losses alike. Nothing is quietly removed.
The single highest conviction pick on each fixture, the bet we would place if we could place only one. The per product breakdown below keeps Builder, ACCA, Score and Cards on their own separate records, so a combination product never flatters this single pick strike rate.
When the model says 60 percent, it should win about 60 percent of the time. Dots near the dashed line mean the probabilities are honest. Live across every settled prediction.
Every product is graded on its own settled record. A multi or accumulator hits far less often than a single by design, so its strike rate is kept entirely separate and never folded into the SharpCast Pick number above. Figures are in units; 1 unit = £10.
Single outcome per fixture, the highest conviction pick.
World Cup and international Main Outcomes, graded from pre kickoff snapshots at the fair price we locked. No bookmaker price exists on this pipeline.
Backtested and simulated. These are NOT pre kickoff locked SharpCast Picks and are not part of the on site track record. Past simulated performance is not a promise of future results. 18+ only. These figures are not the on site track record above and are not pre kickoff locked picks. They replay each product selector over historical fixtures and settle it against the real result.
Single outcome per fixture from the v1.2.3 ensemble selector, settled at the recorded 1X2 book price.
| Date | Fixture | Selection | Chance | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-19 | Metz v Paris SG | away win | 66% | hit | +0.62 |
| 2024-05-15 | Sevilla v Cadiz | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-12 | Bochum v Leverkusen | away win | 61% | hit | +0.70 |
| 2024-05-10 | Frosinone v Inter | away win | 59% | hit | +0.73 |
| 2024-05-06 | Lille v Lyon | home win | 56% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-04 | Sassuolo v Inter | away win | 69% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Darmstadt v Freiburg | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-14 | Ath Bilbao v Villarreal | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Sassuolo v Milan | away win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | M'gladbach v Dortmund | away win | 55% | hit | +1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | Cadiz v Barcelona | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-01 | Lecce v Roma | away win | 58% | miss | -1.00 |
| Date | Comp | Fixture | Market | Pick | Prob | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May | EPL |  Fulham2·0Newcastle | Match result | Newcastle to win | 37% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Fulham2·0Newcastle | Match result | Newcastle to win | 38% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Liverpool1·1Brentford | Match result | Liverpool to win | 53% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Liverpool1·1Brentford | Match result | Liverpool to win | 52% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Burnley1·1Wolves | Match result | Burnley to win | 39% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Burnley1·1Wolves | Match result | Burnley to win | 39% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Tottenham1·0Everton | Match result | Tottenham to win | 44% | won | +0.94u |
| 24 May | EPL | Tottenham1·0Everton | Match result | Tottenham to win | 43% | won | +0.94u |
| 24 May | EPL |  West Ham3·0Leeds | Match result | Leeds to win | 26% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | West Ham3·0Leeds | Match result | West Ham to win | 49% | won | +0.80u |
| 24 May | EPL | West Ham3·0Leeds | Match result | West Ham to win | 48% | won | +0.80u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Manchester City1·2Aston Villa | Match result | Draw | 19% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Manchester City1·2Aston Villa | Match result | Man City to win | 65% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Manchester City1·2Aston Villa | Match resultMain | Man City to win | 67% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Brighton0·3Manchester United | Match result | Brighton to win | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Brighton0·3Manchester United | Match result | Brighton to win | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Crystal Palace1·2Arsenal | Match result | Arsenal to win | 51% | won | +1.05u |
| 24 May | EPL | Crystal Palace1·2Arsenal | Match result | Arsenal to win | 50% | won | +1.02u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Nottingham Forest1·1Bournemouth | Match result | Bournemouth to win | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Nottingham Forest1·1Bournemouth | Match result | Bournemouth to win | 48% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Sunderland2·1Chelsea | Match result | Chelsea to win | 45% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Sunderland2·1Chelsea | Match result | Chelsea to win | 49% | lost | -1.00u |
| 19 May | EPL | Chelsea2·1Tottenham | Match result | Chelsea to win | 43% | won | +1.18u |
| 19 May | EPL | Chelsea2·1Tottenham | Match result | Chelsea to win | 45% | won | +1.15u |
| 19 May | EPL | Bournemouth1·1Manchester City | Match result | Bournemouth to win | 24% | lost | -1.00u |
| 19 May | EPL | Bournemouth1·1Manchester City | Match result | Man City to win | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 19 May | EPL | Bournemouth1·1Manchester City | Match result | Bournemouth to win | 25% | lost | -1.00u |
| 19 May | EPL | Bournemouth1·1Manchester City | Match result | Man City to win | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 18 May | EPL | Arsenal1·0Burnley | Match result | Burnley to win | 7% | lost | -1.00u |
| 18 May | EPL | Arsenal1·0Burnley | Match result | Arsenal to win | 79% | won | +0.13u |
| 18 May | EPL | Arsenal1·0Burnley | Match result | Draw | 14% | lost | -1.00u |
| 18 May | EPL | Arsenal1·0Burnley | Match result | Arsenal to win | 79% | won | +0.12u |
| 17 May | EPL | Newcastle3·1West Ham | Match result | Newcastle to win | 44% | won | +1.20u |
| 17 May | EPL | Newcastle3·1West Ham | Match result | Newcastle to win | 42% | won | +1.31u |
| 17 May | EPL | Wolves1·1Fulham | Match result | Fulham to win | 47% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Wolves1·1Fulham | Match result | Fulham to win | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Everton1·3Sunderland | Match result | Everton to win | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Everton1·3Sunderland | Match result | Everton to win | 48% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Brentford2·2Crystal Palace | Match result | Crystal Palace to win | 26% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Brentford2·2Crystal Palace | Match result | Brentford to win | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Brentford2·2Crystal Palace | Match result | Crystal Palace to win | 24% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Brentford2·2Crystal Palace | Match result | Brentford to win | 52% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Leeds1·0Brighton | Match result | Brighton to win | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Leeds1·0Brighton | Match result | Brighton to win | 44% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Manchester United3·2Nottingham Forest | Match result | Nottm Forest to win | 23% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Manchester United3·2Nottingham Forest | Match result | Man Utd to win | 55% | won | +0.67u |
| 17 May | EPL | Manchester United3·2Nottingham Forest | Match result | Nottm Forest to win | 25% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Manchester United3·2Nottingham Forest | Match result | Man Utd to win | 53% | won | +0.67u |
| 15 May | EPL | Aston Villa4·2Liverpool | Match result | Liverpool to win | 42% | lost | -1.00u |
| 15 May | EPL | Aston Villa4·2Liverpool | Match result | Liverpool to win | 42% | lost | -1.00u |
| 13 May | EPL | Manchester City3·0Crystal Palace | Match result | Draw | 19% | lost | -1.00u |
| 13 May | EPL | Manchester City3·0Crystal Palace | Match result | Man City to win | 66% | won | +0.35u |
| 13 May | EPL | Manchester City3·0Crystal Palace | Match result | Draw | 19% | lost | -1.00u |
| 13 May | EPL | Manchester City3·0Crystal Palace | Match result | Man City to win | 64% | won | +0.35u |
| 11 May | EPL | Tottenham1·1Leeds | Match result | Tottenham to win | 43% | lost | -1.00u |
| 11 May | EPL | Tottenham1·1Leeds | Match result | Tottenham to win | 42% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | EPL | West Ham0·1Arsenal | Match result | Arsenal to win | 58% | won | +0.60u |
| 10 May | EPL | West Ham0·1Arsenal | Match result | Arsenal to win | 58% | won | +0.60u |
| 10 May | EPL | Burnley2·2Aston Villa | Match result | Aston Villa to win | 57% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | EPL | Burnley2·2Aston Villa | Match result | Aston Villa to win | 59% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | EPL | Crystal Palace2·2Everton | Match result | Everton to win | 37% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | EPL | Crystal Palace2·2Everton | Match result | Everton to win | 38% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | EPL | Nottingham Forest1·1Newcastle | Match result | Newcastle to win | 39% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | EPL | Nottingham Forest1·1Newcastle | Match result | Newcastle to win | 39% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | EPL | Manchester City3·0Brentford | Match result | Man City to win | 64% | won | +0.42u |
| 9 May | EPL | Manchester City3·0Brentford | Match result | Man City to win | 60% | won | +0.39u |
| 9 May | EPL | Fulham0·1Bournemouth | Match result | Bournemouth to win | 42% | won | +1.60u |
| 9 May | EPL | Fulham0·1Bournemouth | Match result | Bournemouth to win | 41% | won | +1.61u |
| 9 May | EPL | Brighton3·0Wolves | Match result | Brighton to win | 70% | won | +0.32u |
| 9 May | EPL | Brighton3·0Wolves | Match result | Brighton to win | 72% | won | +0.29u |
| 9 May | EPL | Sunderland0·0Manchester United | Match result | Man Utd to win | 48% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | EPL | Sunderland0·0Manchester United | Match result | Man Utd to win | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | EPL | Liverpool1·1Chelsea | Match result | Chelsea to win | 31% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | EPL | Liverpool1·1Chelsea | Match result | Liverpool to win | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | EPL | Liverpool1·1Chelsea | Match result | Chelsea to win | 31% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | EPL | Liverpool1·1Chelsea | Match result | Liverpool to win | 46% | lost | -1.00u |
| 4 May | EPL | Everton3·3Manchester City | Match result | Man City to win | 62% | lost | -1.00u |
| 4 May | EPL | Everton3·3Manchester City | Match result | Draw | 22% | won | +3.97u |
| 4 May | EPL | Everton3·3Manchester City | Match result | Everton to win | 16% | lost | -1.00u |
| 4 May | EPL | Chelsea1·3Nottingham Forest | Match result | Nottm Forest to win | 27% | won | +4.20u |
| 4 May | EPL | Chelsea1·3Nottingham Forest | Match result | Draw | 24% | lost | -1.00u |
| 4 May | EPL | Chelsea1·3Nottingham Forest | Match result | Chelsea to win | 49% | lost | -1.00u |
| 3 May | EPL | Aston Villa1·2Tottenham | Match result | Tottenham to win | 30% | won | +2.42u |
| 3 May | EPL | Aston Villa1·2Tottenham | Match result | Draw | 26% | lost | -1.00u |
| 3 May | EPL | Aston Villa1·2Tottenham | Match result | Aston Villa to win | 44% | lost | -1.00u |
| 3 May | EPL | Manchester United3·2Liverpool | Match result | Liverpool to win | 35% | lost | -1.00u |
| 3 May | EPL | Manchester United3·2Liverpool | Match result | Draw | 25% | lost | -1.00u |
| 3 May | EPL | Manchester United3·2Liverpool | Match result | Man Utd to win | 40% | won | +1.39u |
| 3 May | EPL | Bournemouth3·0Crystal Palace | Match result | Crystal Palace to win | 25% | lost | -1.00u |
| 3 May | EPL | Bournemouth3·0Crystal Palace | Match result | Draw | 25% | lost | -1.00u |
| 3 May | EPL | Bournemouth3·0Crystal Palace | Match result | Bournemouth to win | 50% | won | +0.68u |
P&L is at level stake, 1 unit = £10, from the price we published when the pick was locked. Latest 100 settled picks shown for the active filters, last 90 days.
Same game multi, correlation priced from the scoreline matrix.
Cross fixture accumulator, higher return and higher variance.
Correct score from the scoreline matrix, long odds.
Player and match card bets, pending the cards model.
SharpCast publishes probabilities, not certainties. Outcomes are expressed as a likelihood with a stated confidence based on the model and the de overrounded market consensus. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.
