Settled SharpCast Picks, locked before kickoff and graded on this site, wins and losses alike. Nothing is quietly removed.
The single highest conviction pick on each fixture, the bet we would place if we could place only one. The per product breakdown below keeps Builder, ACCA, Score and Cards on their own separate records, so a combination product never flatters this single pick strike rate.
When the model says 60 percent, it should win about 60 percent of the time. Dots near the dashed line mean the probabilities are honest. Live across every settled prediction.
Every product is graded on its own settled record. A multi or accumulator hits far less often than a single by design, so its strike rate is kept entirely separate and never folded into the SharpCast Pick number above. Figures are in units; 1 unit = £10.
Single outcome per fixture, the highest conviction pick.
World Cup and international Main Outcomes, graded from pre kickoff snapshots at the fair price we locked. No bookmaker price exists on this pipeline.
Backtested and simulated. These are NOT pre kickoff locked SharpCast Picks and are not part of the on site track record. Past simulated performance is not a promise of future results. 18+ only. These figures are not the on site track record above and are not pre kickoff locked picks. They replay each product selector over historical fixtures and settle it against the real result.
Single outcome per fixture from the v1.2.3 ensemble selector, settled at the recorded 1X2 book price.
| Date | Fixture | Selection | Chance | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-19 | Metz v Paris SG | away win | 66% | hit | +0.62 |
| 2024-05-15 | Sevilla v Cadiz | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-12 | Bochum v Leverkusen | away win | 61% | hit | +0.70 |
| 2024-05-10 | Frosinone v Inter | away win | 59% | hit | +0.73 |
| 2024-05-06 | Lille v Lyon | home win | 56% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-04 | Sassuolo v Inter | away win | 69% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Darmstadt v Freiburg | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-14 | Ath Bilbao v Villarreal | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Sassuolo v Milan | away win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | M'gladbach v Dortmund | away win | 55% | hit | +1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | Cadiz v Barcelona | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-01 | Lecce v Roma | away win | 58% | miss | -1.00 |
| Date | Comp | Fixture | Market | Pick | Prob | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May | EPL |  Fulham2·0Newcastle | Total goalsMain | Under 3.5 | 69% | won | +0.57u |
| 24 May | EPL | Fulham2·0Newcastle | Total goals | Under 1.5 | 25% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Fulham2·0Newcastle | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76% | won | +0.18u |
| 24 May | EPL | Fulham2·0Newcastle | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76% | won | +0.20u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Liverpool1·1Brentford | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 56% | won | +0.78u |
| 24 May | EPL | Liverpool1·1Brentford | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 84% | won | +0.15u |
| 24 May | EPL | Liverpool1·1Brentford | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 84% | won | +0.16u |
| 24 May | EPL | Liverpool1·1Brentford | Total goalsMain | Under 3.5 | 57% | won | +0.77u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Burnley1·1Wolves | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69% | won | +0.50u |
| 24 May | EPL | Burnley1·1Wolves | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 50% | won | +1.27u |
| 24 May | EPL | Burnley1·1Wolves | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 74% | won | +0.28u |
| 24 May | EPL | Burnley1·1Wolves | Total goals | Under 1.5 | 26% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Burnley1·1Wolves | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 70% | won | +0.50u |
| 24 May | EPL | Burnley1·1Wolves | Total goals | Under 1.5 | 27% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Burnley1·1Wolves | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 73% | won | +0.28u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Tottenham1·0Everton | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 75% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Tottenham1·0Everton | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69% | won | +0.43u |
| 24 May | EPL | Tottenham1·0Everton | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Tottenham1·0Everton | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 67% | won | +0.43u |
| 24 May | EPL |  West Ham3·0Leeds | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80% | won | +0.22u |
| 24 May | EPL | West Ham3·0Leeds | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 64% | won | +0.54u |
| 24 May | EPL | West Ham3·0Leeds | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80% | won | +0.21u |
| 24 May | EPL | West Ham3·0Leeds | Total goalsMain | Under 3.5 | 65% | won | +0.52u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Manchester City1·2Aston Villa | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82% | won | +0.12u |
| 24 May | EPL | Manchester City1·2Aston Villa | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 83% | won | +0.10u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Brighton0·3Manchester United | Total goalsMain | Under 3.5 | 63% | won | +0.73u |
| 24 May | EPL | Brighton0·3Manchester United | Total goals | Under 1.5 | 21% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Brighton0·3Manchester United | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 79% | won | +0.16u |
| 24 May | EPL | Brighton0·3Manchester United | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 63% | won | +0.74u |
| 24 May | EPL | Brighton0·3Manchester United | Total goals | Under 1.5 | 21% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Brighton0·3Manchester United | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 79% | won | +0.16u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Crystal Palace1·2Arsenal | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 70% | won | +0.49u |
| 24 May | EPL | Crystal Palace1·2Arsenal | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 73% | won | +0.28u |
| 24 May | EPL | Crystal Palace1·2Arsenal | Total goals | Under 1.5 | 27% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Crystal Palace1·2Arsenal | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 71% | won | +0.49u |
| 24 May | EPL | Crystal Palace1·2Arsenal | Total goals | Under 1.5 | 28% | lost | -1.00u |
| 24 May | EPL | Crystal Palace1·2Arsenal | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 72% | won | +0.27u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Nottingham Forest1·1Bournemouth | Total goalsMain | Under 3.5 | 64% | won | +0.63u |
| 24 May | EPL | Nottingham Forest1·1Bournemouth | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 44% | won | +1.50u |
| 24 May | EPL | Nottingham Forest1·1Bournemouth | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 79% | won | +0.21u |
| 24 May | EPL | Nottingham Forest1·1Bournemouth | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 64% | won | +0.64u |
| 24 May | EPL | Nottingham Forest1·1Bournemouth | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 44% | won | +1.50u |
| 24 May | EPL | Nottingham Forest1·1Bournemouth | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 79% | won | +0.19u |
| 24 May | EPL |  Sunderland2·1Chelsea | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76% | won | +0.25u |
| 24 May | EPL | Sunderland2·1Chelsea | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69% | won | +0.45u |
| 24 May | EPL | Sunderland2·1Chelsea | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | won | +0.26u |
| 24 May | EPL | Sunderland2·1Chelsea | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | won | +0.45u |
| 19 May | EPL | Chelsea2·1Tottenham | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | won | +0.29u |
| 19 May | EPL | Chelsea2·1Tottenham | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | won | +0.40u |
| 19 May | EPL | Chelsea2·1Tottenham | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 53% | won | +0.97u |
| 19 May | EPL | Chelsea2·1Tottenham | Total goalsMain | Over 2.5 | 54% | won | +0.94u |
| 19 May | EPL | Chelsea2·1Tottenham | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 66% | won | +0.44u |
| 19 May | EPL | Bournemouth1·1Manchester City | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 59% | won | +0.68u |
| 19 May | EPL | Bournemouth1·1Manchester City | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82% | won | +0.18u |
| 19 May | EPL | Bournemouth1·1Manchester City | Total goalsMain | Under 3.5 | 59% | won | +0.74u |
| 19 May | EPL | Bournemouth1·1Manchester City | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 83% | won | +0.15u |
| 18 May | EPL | Arsenal1·0Burnley | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80% | lost | -1.00u |
| 18 May | EPL | Arsenal1·0Burnley | Total goalsMain | Under 3.5 | 61% | won | +0.80u |
| 18 May | EPL | Arsenal1·0Burnley | Total goals | Under 1.5 | 20% | won | +6.00u |
| 18 May | EPL | Arsenal1·0Burnley | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80% | lost | -1.00u |
| 18 May | EPL | Arsenal1·0Burnley | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 61% | won | +0.80u |
| 18 May | EPL | Arsenal1·0Burnley | Total goals | Under 1.5 | 20% | won | +6.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Newcastle3·1West Ham | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 83% | won | +0.18u |
| 17 May | EPL | Newcastle3·1West Ham | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 59% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Newcastle3·1West Ham | Total goalsMain | Over 2.5 | 63% | won | +0.58u |
| 17 May | EPL | Newcastle3·1West Ham | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 83% | won | +0.18u |
| 17 May | EPL | Newcastle3·1West Ham | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 57% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Wolves1·1Fulham | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 73% | won | +0.44u |
| 17 May | EPL | Wolves1·1Fulham | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 73% | won | +0.27u |
| 17 May | EPL | Wolves1·1Fulham | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 74% | won | +0.43u |
| 17 May | EPL | Wolves1·1Fulham | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 72% | won | +0.27u |
| 17 May | EPL | Everton1·3Sunderland | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Everton1·3Sunderland | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 71% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Everton1·3Sunderland | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 75% | won | +0.26u |
| 17 May | EPL | Everton1·3Sunderland | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 72% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Everton1·3Sunderland | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 74% | won | +0.27u |
| 17 May | EPL | Brentford2·2Crystal Palace | Total goalsMain | Under 3.5 | 68% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Brentford2·2Crystal Palace | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | won | +0.24u |
| 17 May | EPL | Brentford2·2Crystal Palace | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Brentford2·2Crystal Palace | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | won | +0.23u |
| 17 May | EPL | Leeds1·0Brighton | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69% | won | +0.45u |
| 17 May | EPL | Leeds1·0Brighton | Total goals | Under 2.5 | 48% | won | +1.29u |
| 17 May | EPL | Leeds1·0Brighton | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Leeds1·0Brighton | Total goalsMain | Under 3.5 | 69% | won | +0.50u |
| 17 May | EPL | Leeds1·0Brighton | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 75% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Manchester United3·2Nottingham Forest | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 83% | won | +0.18u |
| 17 May | EPL | Manchester United3·2Nottingham Forest | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 57% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Manchester United3·2Nottingham Forest | Total goalsMain | Under 3.5 | 61% | lost | -1.00u |
| 17 May | EPL | Manchester United3·2Nottingham Forest | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 81% | won | +0.18u |
| 15 May | EPL | Aston Villa4·2Liverpool | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 81% | won | +0.21u |
| 15 May | EPL | Aston Villa4·2Liverpool | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 64% | lost | -1.00u |
| 15 May | EPL | Aston Villa4·2Liverpool | Total goalsMain | Over 2.5 | 56% | won | +0.90u |
| 15 May | EPL | Aston Villa4·2Liverpool | Total goals | Over 2.5 | 57% | won | +0.83u |
| 15 May | EPL | Aston Villa4·2Liverpool | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 64% | lost | -1.00u |
| 13 May | EPL | Manchester City3·0Crystal Palace | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80% | won | +0.16u |
| 13 May | EPL | Manchester City3·0Crystal Palace | Total goals | Under 1.5 | 19% | lost | -1.00u |
| 13 May | EPL | Manchester City3·0Crystal Palace | Total goals | Over 1.5 | 81% | won | +0.16u |
| 11 May | EPL | Tottenham1·1Leeds | Total goalsMain | Over 2.5 | 56% | lost | -1.00u |
| 11 May | EPL | Tottenham1·1Leeds | Total goals | Over 3.5 | 36% | lost | -1.00u |
| 11 May | EPL | Tottenham1·1Leeds | Total goals | Under 3.5 | 66% | won | +0.42u |
P&L is at level stake, 1 unit = £10, from the price we published when the pick was locked. Latest 100 settled picks shown for the active filters, last 90 days.
Same game multi, correlation priced from the scoreline matrix.
Cross fixture accumulator, higher return and higher variance.
Correct score from the scoreline matrix, long odds.
Player and match card bets, pending the cards model.
SharpCast publishes probabilities, not certainties. Outcomes are expressed as a likelihood with a stated confidence based on the model and the de overrounded market consensus. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.
