Settled SharpCast Picks, locked before kickoff and graded on this site, wins and losses alike. Nothing is quietly removed.
The single highest conviction pick on each fixture, the bet we would place if we could place only one. The per product breakdown below keeps Builder, ACCA, Score and Cards on their own separate records, so a combination product never flatters this single pick strike rate.
When the model says 60 percent, it should win about 60 percent of the time. Dots near the dashed line mean the probabilities are honest. Live across every settled prediction.
Every product is graded on its own settled record. A multi or accumulator hits far less often than a single by design, so its strike rate is kept entirely separate and never folded into the SharpCast Pick number above. Figures are in units; 1 unit = £10.
Single outcome per fixture, the highest conviction pick.
World Cup and international Main Outcomes, graded from pre kickoff snapshots at the fair price we locked. No bookmaker price exists on this pipeline.
Backtested and simulated. These are NOT pre kickoff locked SharpCast Picks and are not part of the on site track record. Past simulated performance is not a promise of future results. 18+ only. These figures are not the on site track record above and are not pre kickoff locked picks. They replay each product selector over historical fixtures and settle it against the real result.
Single outcome per fixture from the v1.2.3 ensemble selector, settled at the recorded 1X2 book price.
| Date | Fixture | Selection | Chance | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-19 | Metz v Paris SG | away win | 66% | hit | +0.62 |
| 2024-05-15 | Sevilla v Cadiz | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-12 | Bochum v Leverkusen | away win | 61% | hit | +0.70 |
| 2024-05-10 | Frosinone v Inter | away win | 59% | hit | +0.73 |
| 2024-05-06 | Lille v Lyon | home win | 56% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-05-04 | Sassuolo v Inter | away win | 69% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Darmstadt v Freiburg | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-14 | Ath Bilbao v Villarreal | home win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-14 | Sassuolo v Milan | away win | 59% | miss | -1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | M'gladbach v Dortmund | away win | 55% | hit | +1.00 |
| 2024-04-13 | Cadiz v Barcelona | away win | 56% | hit | +0.83 |
| 2024-04-01 | Lecce v Roma | away win | 58% | miss | -1.00 |
| Date | Comp | Fixture | Market | Pick | Prob | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Bayern München5·11. FC Köln | Match result | Bayern to win | 73% | won | +0.20u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga | Bayern München5·11. FC Köln | Match result | Bayern to win | 72% | won | +0.16u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  SC Freiburg4·1RB Leipzig | Match result | Leipzig to win | 39% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga | SC Freiburg4·1RB Leipzig | Match result | Leipzig to win | 42% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Werder Bremen0·2Borussia Dortmund | Match resultMain | Dortmund to win | 49% | won | +1.22u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga | Werder Bremen0·2Borussia Dortmund | Match result | Dortmund to win | 51% | won | +1.05u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Borussia Mönchengladbach4·01899 Hoffenheim | Match result | 1899 Hoffenheim to win | 52% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga | Borussia Mönchengladbach4·01899 Hoffenheim | Match result | 1899 Hoffenheim to win | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Bayer Leverkusen1·1Hamburger SV | Match result | Leverkusen to win | 70% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga | Bayer Leverkusen1·1Hamburger SV | Match result | Leverkusen to win | 72% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Eintracht Frankfurt2·2VfB Stuttgart | Match result | Stuttgart to win | 48% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga | Eintracht Frankfurt2·2VfB Stuttgart | Match resultMain | Stuttgart to win | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  1. FC Heidenheim0·2FSV Mainz 05 | Match result | 1. FC Heidenheim to win | 43% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga | 1. FC Heidenheim0·2FSV Mainz 05 | Match result | 1. FC Heidenheim to win | 43% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  Union Berlin4·0FC Augsburg | Match result | FC Augsburg to win | 39% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga | Union Berlin4·0FC Augsburg | Match result | FC Augsburg to win | 39% | lost | -1.00u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga |  FC St. Pauli1·3VfL Wolfsburg | Match result | Wolfsburg to win | 44% | won | +1.60u |
| 16 May | Bundesliga | FC St. Pauli1·3VfL Wolfsburg | Match result | Wolfsburg to win | 40% | won | +1.50u |
| 10 May | Bundesliga | FSV Mainz 051·3Union Berlin | Match result | FSV Mainz 05 to win | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | Bundesliga | FSV Mainz 051·3Union Berlin | Match result | Union Berlin to win | 26% | won | +3.78u |
| 10 May | Bundesliga | FSV Mainz 051·3Union Berlin | Match result | Union Berlin to win | 26% | won | +3.90u |
| 10 May | Bundesliga | FSV Mainz 051·3Union Berlin | Match result | FSV Mainz 05 to win | 51% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | Bundesliga | 1. FC Köln1·31. FC Heidenheim | Match result | Köln to win | 47% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | Bundesliga | 1. FC Köln1·31. FC Heidenheim | Match result | Köln to win | 48% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | Bundesliga | Hamburger SV3·2SC Freiburg | Match result | SC Freiburg to win | 39% | lost | -1.00u |
| 10 May | Bundesliga | Hamburger SV3·2SC Freiburg | Match result | SC Freiburg to win | 39% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | VfL Wolfsburg0·1Bayern München | Match result | Bayern to win | 63% | won | +0.51u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | VfL Wolfsburg0·1Bayern München | Match result | Bayern to win | 62% | won | +0.58u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | 1899 Hoffenheim1·0Werder Bremen | Match result | 1899 Hoffenheim to win | 61% | won | +0.52u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | 1899 Hoffenheim1·0Werder Bremen | Match result | 1899 Hoffenheim to win | 62% | won | +0.54u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | FC Augsburg3·1Borussia Mönchengladbach | Match result | Mönchengladbach to win | 32% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | FC Augsburg3·1Borussia Mönchengladbach | Match result | Draw | 26% | lost | -1.00u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | FC Augsburg3·1Borussia Mönchengladbach | Match result | FC Augsburg to win | 47% | won | +1.05u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | FC Augsburg3·1Borussia Mönchengladbach | Match result | FC Augsburg to win | 45% | won | +1.03u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | VfB Stuttgart3·1Bayer Leverkusen | Match result | Stuttgart to win | 44% | won | +1.32u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | VfB Stuttgart3·1Bayer Leverkusen | Match result | Stuttgart to win | 41% | won | +1.28u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | RB Leipzig2·1FC St. Pauli | Match result | Leipzig to win | 68% | won | +0.33u |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | RB Leipzig2·1FC St. Pauli | Match result | Leipzig to win | 72% | won | +0.35u |
| 3 May | Bundesliga | SC Freiburg1·1VfL Wolfsburg | Match result | Wolfsburg to win | 28% | lost | -1.00u |
| 3 May | Bundesliga | SC Freiburg1·1VfL Wolfsburg | Match result | Draw | 22% | won | +2.70u |
| 3 May | Bundesliga | SC Freiburg1·1VfL Wolfsburg | Match result | SC Freiburg to win | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 3 May | Bundesliga | Borussia Mönchengladbach1·0Borussia Dortmund | Match result | Dortmund to win | 50% | lost | -1.00u |
| 3 May | Bundesliga | Borussia Mönchengladbach1·0Borussia Dortmund | Match result | Draw | 25% | lost | -1.00u |
| 3 May | Bundesliga | Borussia Mönchengladbach1·0Borussia Dortmund | Match result | Mönchengladbach to win | 26% | won | +2.80u |
| 3 May | Bundesliga | FC St. Pauli1·2FSV Mainz 05 | Match result | FSV Mainz 05 to win | 44% | won | +1.61u |
| 3 May | Bundesliga | FC St. Pauli1·2FSV Mainz 05 | Match result | Draw | 27% | lost | -1.00u |
| 3 May | Bundesliga | FC St. Pauli1·2FSV Mainz 05 | Match result | FC St. Pauli to win | 29% | lost | -1.00u |
P&L is at level stake, 1 unit = £10, from the price we published when the pick was locked. Latest 100 settled picks shown for the active filters, last 90 days.
Same game multi, correlation priced from the scoreline matrix.
Cross fixture accumulator, higher return and higher variance.
Correct score from the scoreline matrix, long odds.
Player and match card bets, pending the cards model.
SharpCast publishes probabilities, not certainties. Outcomes are expressed as a likelihood with a stated confidence based on the model and the de overrounded market consensus. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.
