PSV
WWWWD
Live
0 – 0
Live
Sparta RotterdamLWD
Sparta RotterdamFiled 19:09 UTC · committed with the confirmed lineups · this is the pick on the record
PSV hold a substantial expected goals advantage at 3.04 against Sparta Rotterdam's 1.42, supporting both sides to score; the model rates it at 68 percent, a little above the market's 64 percent.
Tap any market for the model's reasoning, the numbers behind it and to track the pick. Fair price is the de overrounded model probability expressed as decimal odds, not a bookmaker quote.
4.5 expected goals · most likely total 6+ · an open, high scoring game
Running on the league baseline, no team cards history yet. Treat as a guide, not a team specific read.
Appointment confirmed. SharpCast has no settled match history for this official yet, so the profile builds as they officiate. Card strictness is not yet part of the model.
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches.
published probability · fair price · model marks a line the market does not price
Each side's goals per game over recent matches (the bar) against the expected goals their chances were worth (the tick). Scoring past the tick means finishing well; conceding inside the tick means defending well.
From the confirmed lineups, ranked by the chance of a card. Players marked estimate have little booking history, so the figure leans on their position.