Excelsior
LWD
Full time
1 – 2
UtrechtLLDLD
UtrechtFiled 19:10 UTC · committed with the confirmed lineups · this is the pick on the record
Excelsior and Utrecht are projected to combine for around 3.3 expected goals, supporting a higher scoring match, so over 2.5 goals rates at 65 percent.
Tap any market for the model's reasoning, the numbers behind it and to track the pick. Fair price is the de overrounded model probability expressed as decimal odds, not a bookmaker quote.
The SharpCast Builder is a same-game multi built only from this fixture's own picks. Because the legs come from one match they are correlated, and the combined chance is priced over the projected scorelines rather than multiplied as if independent. The price shown is the model's fair price for that chance.
The same-game multi for this fixture, built from its own picks and priced for correlation, is a Pro feature.
The higher-odds build for this fixture, reaching for 20/1 or more from supported legs, is a Pro feature.
3.3 expected goals · most likely total 3 · an open, high scoring game
Running on the league baseline, no team cards history yet. Treat as a guide, not a team specific read.
Appointment confirmed. SharpCast has no settled match history for this official yet, so the profile builds as they officiate. Card strictness is not yet part of the model.
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches. It was committed before kickoff and is kept on this site.
published probability · fair price · model marks a line the market does not price
Each side's goals per game over recent matches (the bar) against the expected goals their chances were worth (the tick). Scoring past the tick means finishing well; conceding inside the tick means defending well.