Hull City versus Southampton, Championship
- Lineups not yet confirmed
- Motivation tier active
Main OutcomeOver 2.5
Total goals
ConvictionOver 2.5
Total goals
Every leg is one of this fixture’s own SharpCast Picks, combined and priced on the correlation between them — the structural edge bookmakers miss because they price each leg as if it were independent.
Result markets
The model leans Southampton +2 at 86 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
The model leans Either team to win at 75 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
The model leans Southampton draw no bet at 59 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
The model leans Hull to win at 31 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
Goals markets
The model rates Over 2.5 at 48%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 1.32 goals for the home side and 1.66 for the away (2.98 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model leans BTTS yes at 50 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
2-1 is the most likely exact score consistent with the rest of our read on this match, at 7% on the scoreline matrix. Correct score is a long-odds market, shown as the model's line.
Combined markets
The model leans Hull to win and BTTS yes at 16 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
The board is the filed record; the assumptions panel in the scoreline model below only adjusts the distribution view, never these picks.
The win band is the model’s sampling range over 10,000 simulations, not a market quote.
Showing the filed assumptions. Toggle the input to see the distribution recompute as a client side estimate, not the filed model.
Each dot is one match, larger dots more recent. The coloured band is the average gap from expected; gridlines mark one goal either side.
Each dot is one match, larger dots more recent. The coloured band is the average gap from expected; gridlines mark one goal either side.
View match breakdown
These recent rates anchor the model’s projection for this fixture: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Each dot is one match, larger dots more recent. The coloured band is the average gap from expected; gridlines mark one goal either side.
Each dot is one match, larger dots more recent. The coloured band is the average gap from expected; gridlines mark one goal either side.
View match breakdown
These recent rates anchor the model’s projection for this fixture: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
1 to 4 goals · 76% of simulations
Most likely 2 goals.
Model probabilities from the projected distribution; fair price excludes the bookmaker margin. The filed selection for every market is in All Markets above.
From both sides' cards per game over the last 3+ matches, shrunk toward the league baseline.
- Over / Under 3.5 cardsO 39%·U 61%
- Over / Under 4.5 cardsO 22%·U 78%
- Over / Under 5.5 cardsO 10%·U 90%
- Over / Under 6.5 cardsO 4%·U 96%
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches.