Arsenal versus Atletico Madrid, Champions League
Main Outcome · settledOver 2.5
Total goals
ConvictionOver 2.5
Total goals
Every leg is one of this fixture’s own SharpCast Picks, combined and priced on the correlation between them — the structural edge bookmakers miss because they price each leg as if it were independent.
Result markets
The model rates Arsenal to win at 62%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 2.23 goals for the home side and 1.03 for the away (3.25 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model puts Arsenal +2 at 93 percent, too short to carry betting value. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
The model leans Arsenal or draw at 83 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
The model leans Arsenal draw no bet at 78 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
Goals markets
The model rates Over 2.5 at 57%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 2.23 goals for the home side and 1.03 for the away (3.25 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model rates BTTS yes at 53%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 2.23 goals for the home side and 1.03 for the away (3.25 total) across the simulated scorelines.
2-1 is the most likely exact score consistent with the rest of our read on this match, at 9% on the scoreline matrix. Correct score is a long-odds market, shown as the model's line.
Combined markets
The model leans Arsenal to win and BTTS yes at 30 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
Each settled row is tinted and badged by whether the filed pick landed. The board is the locked record and does not move.
The win band is the model’s sampling range over 10,000 simulations, not a market quote.
Showing the filed assumptions. Toggle the input to see the distribution recompute as a client side estimate, not the filed model.
| Side | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| AArsenal | 2.2actual 1 | 1.0actual 0 |
| AAtletico Madrid | 1.0actual 0 | 2.2actual 1 |
Expected goals is the model’s projected scoring rate for each side. Conceded is the opponent’s projection.
1 to 4 goals · 73% of simulations
Most likely 3 goals.
Model probabilities from the projected distribution; fair price excludes the bookmaker margin. The filed selection for every market is in All Markets above.
- lineupStarting XIs confirmed by API-Football. The prediction was re-run with confirmed lineup data.
From both sides' cards per game over the last 6+ matches, shrunk toward the league baseline.
- Over / Under 3.5 cardsO 71%·U 29%
- Over / Under 4.5 cardsO 53%·U 47%
- Over / Under 5.5 cardsO 35%·U 65%
- Over / Under 6.5 cardsO 21%·U 79%
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches. It was locked before kickoff and is kept on this site.