Both teams to score
Both teams to score
Every leg is one of this fixture’s own SharpCast Picks, combined and priced on the correlation between them — the structural edge bookmakers miss because they price each leg as if it were independent.
The model leans FSV Mainz 05 to win at 38 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
The model leans FSV Mainz 05 +2 at 89 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
The model leans Either team to win at 75 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
The model leans FSV Mainz 05 draw no bet at 66 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
The model rates Over 1.5 at 77%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 1.18 goals for the home side and 1.79 for the away (2.96 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model rates BTTS yes at 56%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 1.18 goals for the home side and 1.79 for the away (2.96 total) across the simulated scorelines.
1-2 is the most likely exact score consistent with the rest of our read on this match, at 8% on the scoreline matrix. Correct score is a long-odds market, shown as the model's line.
The model leans FSV Mainz 05 to win and BTTS yes at 24 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
Each settled row is tinted and badged by whether the filed pick landed. The board is the locked record and does not move.
The win band is the model’s sampling range over 10,000 simulations, not a market quote.
Showing the filed assumptions. Toggle the input to see the distribution recompute as a client side estimate, not the filed model.
| Side | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| FFC St. Pauli | 1.2actual 1 | 1.8actual 2 |
| FFSV Mainz 05 | 1.8actual 2 | 1.2actual 1 |
Expected goals is the model’s projected scoring rate for each side. Conceded is the opponent’s projection.
1 to 4 goals · 76% of simulations
Most likely 2 goals.
Model probabilities from the projected distribution; fair price excludes the bookmaker margin. The filed selection for every market is in All Markets above.
From both sides' cards per game over the last 3+ matches, shrunk toward the league baseline.
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches. It was locked before kickoff and is kept on this site.
SharpCast publishes probabilities, not certainties. Outcomes are expressed as a likelihood with a stated confidence based on the model and the de overrounded market consensus. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.
Filed 12:16 UTC · 1 hour before kickoff
Main Outcome · settled
Conviction