DortmundFiled Filed 12:16 UTC · 3 hours before kickoff · locked before kickoff · kept on the record, wins and losses alike
This pick won. Final score 1 – 0. Filed before kickoff and kept on the record.
Tap any market for the model's reasoning, the numbers behind it and to track the pick. Fair price is the de overrounded model probability expressed as decimal odds, not a bookmaker quote.
2.9 expected goals · most likely total 2 · a balanced game
model probability · fair price
From both sides' cards per game over the last 3+ matches, shrunk toward the league baseline.
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches. It was locked before kickoff and is kept on this site.
SharpCast publishes probabilities, not certainties. Outcomes are expressed as a likelihood with a stated confidence based on the model and the de overrounded market consensus. Please gamble responsibly and within your means.
