GibraltarCommitment timing not verified
Total goals
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches. Pre-kickoff timing has not been verified.
Tap any market for the model's reasoning, the numbers behind it and to track the pick. Fair price is the de overrounded model probability expressed as decimal odds, not a bookmaker quote.
The SharpCast Builder is a same-game multi built only from this fixture's own picks. Because the legs come from one match they are correlated, and the combined chance is priced over the projected scorelines rather than multiplied as if independent. The price shown is the model's fair price for that chance.
Every leg is this fixture's own SharpCast Pick. The legs are correlated (a result leans on goals landing, both teams scoring leans on the goals line) and the joint chance is summed over the scoreline matrix, so it already prices that overlap. The price is the model fair price for the combined chance, not a bookmaker quote.
2.2 expected goals · most likely total 2 · a balanced game
Each side's goals per game over recent matches (the bar) against the expected goals their chances were worth (the tick). Scoring past the tick means finishing well; conceding inside the tick means defending well.
Running on the league baseline, no team cards history yet. Treat as a guide, not a team specific read.
published probability · fair price · model marks a line the market does not price