England
WWWDW
Kickoff
16:00
Congo DRDLDLW
Congo DRProvisional selection · Filed 01:56 UTC · confirmed with the lineups 45 minutes before kickoff
England project 1.99 expected goals against Congo DR's 0.4, giving the home side a clear attacking advantage; the model rates an England win at 69 percent.
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Tap any market for the model's reasoning, the numbers behind it and to track the pick. Fair price is the de overrounded model probability expressed as decimal odds, not a bookmaker quote.
The SharpCast Builder is a same-game multi built only from this fixture's own picks. Because the legs come from one match they are correlated, and the combined chance is priced over the projected scorelines rather than multiplied as if independent. The price shown is the model's fair price for that chance.
The same-game multi for this fixture, built from its own picks and priced for correlation, is a Pro feature.
2.3 expected goals · most likely total 2 · a balanced game
Running on the league baseline, no team cards history yet. Treat as a guide, not a team specific read.
Appointment confirmed. SharpCast has no settled match history for this official yet, so the profile builds as they officiate. Card strictness is not yet part of the model.
Predicted from each side's recent starting history, weighted to the most recent matches. The ring on a shirt (and the bar in the list) is that player's start probability; an uncertain starter is dimmed. This is replaced by the official lineup once it is confirmed before kickoff.
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches.
model probability · fair price
Each side's goals per game over recent matches (the bar) against the expected goals their chances were worth (the tick). Scoring past the tick means finishing well; conceding inside the tick means defending well.