Uzbekistan U23 versus Japan U21, International Friendly
Main Outcome · settledUnder 2.5
Total goals
ConvictionUnder 2.5
Total goals
SharpCast Builder
ProSame game multiEvery leg is one of this fixture’s own SharpCast Picks, combined and priced on the correlation between them — the structural edge bookmakers miss because they price each leg as if it were independent.
Result markets
The model rates Uzbekistan U23 +2 at 92%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 1.72 goals for the home side and 0.98 for the away (2.70 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model rates Uzbekistan U23 or draw at 79%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 1.72 goals for the home side and 0.98 for the away (2.70 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model rates Uzbekistan U23 draw no bet at 70%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 1.72 goals for the home side and 0.98 for the away (2.70 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model leans Uzbekistan U23 to win at 48 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
Goals markets
The model rates Over 1.5 at 72%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 1.72 goals for the home side and 0.98 for the away (2.70 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model leans BTTS no at 51 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
Combined markets
The model leans Uzbekistan U23 to win and BTTS no at 28 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
Each settled row is tinted and badged by whether the filed pick landed. The board is the locked record and does not move.
Showing the filed assumptions. Toggle the input to see the distribution recompute as a client side estimate, not the filed model.
| Side | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| UUzbekistan U23 | 1.7actual 0 | 1.0actual 1 |
| JJapan U21 | 1.0actual 1 | 1.7actual 0 |
Expected goals is the model’s projected scoring rate for each side. Conceded is the opponent’s projection.
Most likely 2 goals.
Running on the league baseline, no team cards history yet. Treat as a guide, not a team specific read.
- Over / Under 3.5 cardsO 53%·U 47%
- Over / Under 4.5 cardsO 33%·U 67%
- Over / Under 5.5 cardsO 18%·U 82%
- Over / Under 6.5 cardsO 9%·U 91%
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches. It was locked before kickoff and is kept on this site.