Ethiopia versus Malawi, International Friendly
Main Outcome · settledUnder 2.5
Total goals
ConvictionUnder 2.5
Total goals
Result markets
The model rates Malawi +2 at 83%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 1.05 goals for the home side and 0.65 for the away (1.70 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model rates Ethiopia or draw at 79%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 1.05 goals for the home side and 0.65 for the away (1.70 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model rates Ethiopia draw no bet at 66%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 1.05 goals for the home side and 0.65 for the away (1.70 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model leans Draw at 40 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
Goals markets
mainThe model rates Under 2.5 at 76%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 1.05 goals for the home side and 0.65 for the away (1.70 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model rates BTTS no at 69%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 1.05 goals for the home side and 0.65 for the away (1.70 total) across the simulated scorelines.
Combined markets
The model leans Ethiopia to win and BTTS no at 30 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
Each settled row is tinted and badged by whether the filed pick landed. The board is the locked record and does not move.
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches. It was locked before kickoff and is kept on this site.