Morocco versus Burundi, International Friendly
Main Outcome · settledMorocco to win
Match result
ConvictionMorocco to win
Match result
Every leg is one of this fixture’s own SharpCast Picks, combined and priced on the correlation between them — the structural edge bookmakers miss because they price each leg as if it were independent.
Result markets
mainThe model leans Morocco to win at 72 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
The model puts Morocco draw no bet at 93 percent, too short to carry betting value. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
The model puts Morocco +2 at 99 percent, too short to carry betting value. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
The model leans Either team to win at 77 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
Goals markets
The model leans Over 1.5 at 73 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
2-0 is the most likely exact score consistent with the rest of our read on this match, at 16% on the scoreline matrix. Correct score is a long-odds market, shown as the model's line.
The model leans BTTS no at 68 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
Combined markets
The model leans Morocco to win and BTTS no at 54 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
Each settled row is tinted and badged by whether the filed pick landed. The board is the locked record and does not move.
The win band is the model’s sampling range over 10,000 simulations, not a market quote.
Showing the filed assumptions. Toggle the input to see the distribution recompute as a client side estimate, not the filed model.
| Side | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| MMorocco | 2.5actual 5 | 0.4actual 0 |
| BBurundi | 0.4actual 0 | 2.5actual 5 |
Expected goals is the model’s projected scoring rate for each side. Conceded is the opponent’s projection.
1 to 4 goals · 78% of simulations
Most likely 2 goals.
Model probabilities from the projected distribution; fair price excludes the bookmaker margin. The filed selection for every market is in All Markets above.
Running on the league baseline, no team cards history yet. Treat as a guide, not a team specific read.
- Over / Under 3.5 cardsO 53%·U 47%
- Over / Under 4.5 cardsO 33%·U 67%
- Over / Under 5.5 cardsO 18%·U 82%
- Over / Under 6.5 cardsO 9%·U 91%
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches. It was locked before kickoff and is kept on this site.