Greece versus Italy, International Friendly
Main Outcome · settledUnder 2.5
Total goals
ConvictionUnder 2.5
Total goals
SharpCast BuilderPro
Result markets
The model rates Italy +2 at 91%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 0.98 goals for the home side and 1.67 for the away (2.65 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model rates Italy or draw at 79%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 0.98 goals for the home side and 1.67 for the away (2.65 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model rates Italy draw no bet at 69%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 0.98 goals for the home side and 1.67 for the away (2.65 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model leans Italy to win at 47 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
Goals markets
The model rates Over 1.5 at 71%. The bookmakers have not priced this market here, so the fair price shown is the model’s own and the read stands alone. It falls out of an expected 0.98 goals for the home side and 1.67 for the away (2.65 total) across the simulated scorelines.
The model leans BTTS no at 51 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
Combined markets
The model leans Italy to win and BTTS no at 28 percent, close to a coin flip. This is the model's line, not a recommended bet.
Each settled row is tinted and badged by whether the filed pick landed. The board is the locked record and does not move.
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches. It was locked before kickoff and is kept on this site.