England
DLWWW
Kickoff
20:00
GhanaLLLDW
GhanaProvisional selection · Filed 08:58 UTC · confirmed with the lineups 45 minutes before kickoff
cast your call to see the community split
Tap any market for the model's reasoning, the numbers behind it and to track the pick. Fair price is the de overrounded model probability expressed as decimal odds, not a bookmaker quote.
The SharpCast Builder is a same-game multi built only from this fixture's own picks. Because the legs come from one match they are correlated, and the combined chance is priced over the projected scorelines rather than multiplied as if independent. The price shown is the model's fair price for that chance.
The same-game multi for this fixture, built from its own picks and priced for correlation, is a Pro feature.
3.4 expected goals · most likely total 2 · an open, high scoring game
Running on the league baseline, no team cards history yet. Treat as a guide, not a team specific read.
Model probability reads against the norm for each position, not value bets: player card prices are not on the market here and the referee is not confirmed until close to kickoff. No price is shown. SharpCast Cards is tracked on its own separate record. Open a row for the reasoning.
Predicted from each side's recent starting history, weighted to the most recent matches. The ring on a shirt (and the bar in the list) is that player's start probability; an uncertain starter is dimmed. This is replaced by the official lineup once it is confirmed before kickoff.
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches.
model probability · fair price
Each side's goals per game over recent matches (the bar) against the expected goals their chances were worth (the tick). Scoring past the tick means finishing well; conceding inside the tick means defending well.
The model estimates a 32.0% probability of receiving at least one card, based on defensive role with elevated card exposure, above average card rate this season (1.53x position norm), World Cup group intensity.
The model estimates a 32.0% probability of receiving at least one card, based on defensive role with elevated card exposure, above average card rate this season (1.53x position norm), World Cup group intensity.
The model estimates a 31.3% probability of receiving at least one card, based on defensive role with elevated card exposure, above average card rate this season (1.49x position norm), World Cup group intensity.